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  #1  
Old Nov 24th 2016, 06:51 AM
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Dominick Dominick is offline
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Default Political predictions

Let's do this on a regular basis.

So, I've predicted that Le Pen will NOT win in France.

I do however predict that yet another fascist, Norbert Hofer, WILL win the presidential elections in Austria.

Fascists here, fascists there, fascists everywhere.

'Xcept for France that is.
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  #2  
Old Nov 24th 2016, 01:16 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

What's your prediction for this Sunday elections in France: Fillon or Juppé?

And what's your thinking for MLP not being elected.

Against all expectations, Fillon socred largely first at the primaries of the right wing conservative party on last Sunday. One month ago, he was making 10% in polls and was holding the third place On last Sunday he arrived first with 44%. Big, big surprise.
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  #3  
Old Nov 26th 2016, 06:20 AM
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Default Re: Political predictions

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What's your prediction for this Sunday elections in France: Fillon or Juppé?

Against all expectations, Fillon socred largely first at the primaries of the right wing conservative party on last Sunday. One month ago, he was making 10% in polls and was holding the third place On last Sunday he arrived first with 44%. Big, big surprise.
Indeed and I have no idea who will win now. I hadn't paid much attention to Fillon. I don't really know what he stands for.
At least my argument that pollsters use very inadequate methods is permanently settled.

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And what's your thinking for MLP not being elected.
The short version, the long version or the ultra long version?

Being a lazy sod here's the short version:
L'histoire se répète.
True, but never quite the same. Nevertheless there are some aspects which are fundamental and critical to any specific type of event. In the case of the rise of the extreme right throughout history one such aspect is propaganda, incessant anti-intellectual hate propaganda. In fact, when examining previous episodes (not just the 1930's) one could argue that this propaganda is not only a necessary but even a sufficient cause for the rise of the extreme right and the ensuing events, such as genocide. Always genocide.

Presently we're right in the middle of that same scenario. Back in the good old days, which were actually just a few years ago, all us intellectuals (the real ones, the pseudo-ones and the wannabe ones) enjoyed ourselves mocking those who parroted this propaganda and rightly so because it is stupid dumb utter bullshit. And yet, there's no denying that once again it has worked. What used to be fringe nutters are now the majority of the population or at least a number near enough to that. This shit works.

And that's why there's Brexit. In the case of the UK the propaganda was consistently produced by the Murdoch rags, i.e. the tabloids. The next time you're in London pick up a copy of the Daily Mail and the Daily Express. Then brace yourself and read both cover to cover. It doesn't even matter what day it is or what's the news of the day. It's always the same anyway. If you survive that then realize that for most people this is their ONLY source of 'information' since years and that their readers actually believe all the nonsense in it. That's how you get a Brexit.

As for Trump and the USA, the propaganda is produced in two ways. There's the radio stations such as e.g. Michael Savage (20 million listeners !) and there's the websites and/or Youtube accounts and similar. An example of those is Alex Jones (2 million subscribers and one billion views). Watch or listen to either of those if you can stomach it and then realize that for most of their listeners and viewers this is their ONLY source of 'information' since years. That's how you get Trump.

On to France. Let's face it, France isn't the beacon of Culture either anymore like it used to be. Far from it actually. But it as of yet doesn't have such a structured, incessant and widespread source of hate propaganda as the UK and the USA have. The FN is present on TV, in the papers and certainly online but it is still countered by what's left of the rational and educated part of the population. In short, France hasn't devolved enough yet for an FN president. It's probably just a matter of time but I don't think that time is here yet.
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Old Nov 27th 2016, 05:39 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

Well, I've been pretty much wrong about every prediction that I've tried to make in the last year or so, so fuck me.

But what the hell, I'll play along. The referendum on the peace deal in Colombia was narrowly rejected (under some questionable circumstances). There is a new peace deal and they are not taking it to a referendum, but instead to a vote of congress.

I suspect it will pass, and be a small beacon of hope against the global creep of fascism.
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Old Nov 28th 2016, 08:39 AM
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Default Re: Political predictions

Fillon is an ultra-conservative. He is an aristocrat who goes to church every Sunday, disdains the poor and think French people are a lazy bunch.

The abstention will be very high in May. I am not sure I will be able to cast my vote for him if he comes in the second round of the elections.
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Old Nov 28th 2016, 04:02 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

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Fillon is an ultra-conservative. He is an aristocrat who goes to church every Sunday, disdains the poor and think French people are a lazy bunch.
So it seems. Do you happen to have an explanation as to why he suddenly rose to such heights?

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The abstention will be very high in May.
Uh ooh. Alarms bells going off. Quand les dégoûtés....

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I am not sure I will be able to cast my vote for him if he comes in the second round of the elections.
Not even given the alternative of ?
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Old Nov 28th 2016, 09:02 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dominick View Post
... In the case of the rise of the extreme right throughout history one such aspect is propaganda, incessant anti-intellectual hate propaganda. In fact, when examining previous episodes (not just the 1930's) one could argue that this propaganda is not only a necessary but even a sufficient cause for the rise of the extreme right and the ensuing events, such as genocide. Always genocide.
I'm not sure I want to get bogged down in a debate about it, but I don't think such propaganda is sufficient cause for the rise of extreme right, followed by genocide. I grant that it probably is a necessary cause, but I'm quibbling about the 'sufficient' cause part. That seems a wee bit hyperbolic.

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... What used to be fringe nutters are now the majority of the population or at least a number near enough to that. This shit works.
Yes, I'm afraid that I have to agree with this.

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Originally Posted by Dominick View Post
As for Trump and the USA, the propaganda is produced in two ways. There's the radio stations such as e.g. Michael Savage (20 million listeners !) and there's the websites and/or Youtube accounts and similar. An example of those is Alex Jones (2 million subscribers and one billion views). Watch or listen to either of those if you can stomach it and then realize that for most of their listeners and viewers this is their ONLY source of 'information' since years. That's how you get Trump.
Again, I have to agree. There really are lots of these people out there who receive only a narrow channel of political information and block everything else out (or don't hear/encounter it). I know and have met people like this here in Canada - they are complete FoxNewsBots and you'd think they were American they way they talk about politics. They are always 'whitish' males and over 40.

Btw, I have met the opposite female type and they are almost totally their leftwing opposites. Though, to be fair, they are much fewer and less economically and dominant in society as the white guys with their FoxNews defined world views. And yes, that FoxNews worldview is practically sane and rational compared to the Michael Savage or Alex Jones stuff that they tend to drift into all too easily.
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  #8  
Old Nov 30th 2016, 11:32 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

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Well, I've been pretty much wrong about every prediction that I've tried to make in the last year or so, so fuck me.

But what the hell, I'll play along. The referendum on the peace deal in Colombia was narrowly rejected (under some questionable circumstances). There is a new peace deal and they are not taking it to a referendum, but instead to a vote of congress.

I suspect it will pass, and be a small beacon of hope against the global creep of fascism.
I love being right, but even more I love WHY I am right.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/30/wo...el-santos.html
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  #9  
Old Dec 1st 2016, 02:30 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

In any case ... Hollande will not stand for president again in 2017. What a humiliation. This is the first time this happens in French presidential history.
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  #10  
Old Dec 1st 2016, 06:18 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

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I love being right, but even more I love WHY I am right.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/30/wo...el-santos.html
Why do you love why are you right? I can see that your prediction came to pass and that's good, but what am I missing?
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