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  #41  
Old May 3rd 2017, 06:11 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

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Originally Posted by Sucre View Post
For many "Fillonistes", Macron is too left-wing: too keynsian in economic terms and, more importantly, not focused on national identity/ muslim v. Christian etc.

This part of the electorate will move over to MLP.


Part of the electorate that voted left may be attracted to her protectionist anti-globalisation stance ; part of the electorate that voted right to her nationalistic stance.


The level of abstention will be key. "Ni ... ni" ... Neither Le Pen, the racist nationalist, nor Macron the social liberal say some.

I want this election to be over. Already fell out with some friends ...
Low turnout, or high abstention always plays into the hands of the hardcore rightwingers (as Donkey noted above) because they are the true believers who will show up to vote no matter what. If the left stays home, that increases the chances of President Le Pen.
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  #42  
Old May 8th 2017, 07:59 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

Well, it seems that Le Pen didn't gain very much at all. Maybe Trump's amateur-hour/comedy-hour performance gave some people second thoughts about voting for a extreme rightwing non-politician.

Macron won by a large margin.
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Old May 16th 2017, 09:12 AM
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Default Re: Political predictions

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Well, it seems that Le Pen didn't gain very much at all. Maybe Trump's amateur-hour/comedy-hour performance gave some people second thoughts about voting for a extreme rightwing non-politician.

Macron won by a large margin.
A much larger margin than anybody has thought!

Anyway, told you she would not win .

What killed Le Pen is the disastrous TV debate of the 3rd May. She was awful. Kept agressing Macron, had no argument, got mixed up in her files etc.

Now, it looks like the FN party is falling apart. Yes, definitely, we're living in "interesting times".
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