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  #21  
Old Jan 23rd 2017, 08:03 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

Just in case anyone isn't completely depressed yet:

I predict that Trump will use nuclear weapons in his first term.

It won't be against Russia or China or even North Korea though. Those countries might actually strike back and oligarchs don't want a full scale nuclear war because you can't live a billionaire's life afterwards. No, he'll use it against a country which can't strike back. I don't have any specific country in mind or even a region (although the Middle East is always a prime candidate, it might just as well be a European one).

Admittedly this prediction is five percent or less reasoning and ninety-five percent or more gut feeling. The main motivation is Trump's obvious and serious personality disorder and his change in demeanour. If you remember his first meeting with Obama as president-elect he looked like a virgin school kid who stumbled into a frontier brothel. He clearly hadn't the beginning of a clue what he gotten himself into.

But that has changed very rapidly. It apparently has dawned on him that it's all real and has gotten a sense of just how powerful his position is. He's clearly interpreting it as "Hell, I can do whatever the fuck I want to". He's already creating a parallel Trump universe with 'alternative facts' and answered 'Because I'll tell them' when asked how his electorate will evaluate his presidency as successful.

He'll do it for no other reason than because he can. He won't let the opportunity slip to do something unprecedented and which to him will seem a sign of strength. A reason or cause, no matter how flimsy, might be concocted but as his first dealings with the press indicate, even that's no longer necessary in this Brave New World.
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  #22  
Old Jan 24th 2017, 07:32 AM
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Default Re: Political predictions

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Originally Posted by Dominick View Post
Who the hell is Emmanuel Macron and where does he come from?

Three years ago, 95% of the French would have answered "Je n'en sais rien", i.e. I have no idea. Today he might very well be on the road to become the next Président de la République, i.e. the next French President.

While he doesn't even have the television notoriety which launched people like Trump or the First Flemish Nationalist, his new movement went from 0% to 25% in months. Ah, he must be a right or left wing populist then? Nope, he's supposedly an 'extreme centrist' (). Is he a man of the people then? Nope, couldn't be further from it. Nothing but elite schools and most of his life he was -cringe- a Rothschild banker.

Then what is his appeal?
Je n'en sais rien", i.e. I have no idea.

Sucre?
He is an outsider.

He is immensely good-looking and smart. (>>>> The anti-Trump )

He has a super effective communication strategy. No political platforms like other parties have but innovative ideas, some of them would be classified as "left", others as "right", all of them stemming, he says, from "collaborative democracy".

You sign up for free on his platform. You get invited to events and workshops where you discuss policial subjects and put propositions in. All are young or less young but all look smart and intelligent.

You may contribute, but only if you want and as much as you want.

His "soldiers" (all young good looking in their 30s) go from door to door, asking questions such as :"What do you think works WELL in France at the moment?)."

He spreads optimism not negativism.

He targets electoral districts whith a changing voting landscape, from red to blue or blue to red. He targets the middle class.

He comes from a middle class family himself, is now a millionaire, worked in a bank, two years in the Hollande government as minister of the economy.

Fillon is a conservative christian moron. Marine Le Pen a fascist. If the Socialists select Hannon, a friendly idealist lefty, on next Sunday as their candidate for the presidency, Macron has good chances to be one of the two winners of the first round of the presidential elections in April. That's my prediction.
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Last edited by Sucre; Jan 24th 2017 at 07:37 AM.
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  #23  
Old Jan 25th 2017, 01:22 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

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Originally Posted by Sucre View Post
He is an outsider.

He is immensely good-looking and smart. (>>>> The anti-Trump )
Ah, la passion francaise s'éveille

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sucre View Post
He has a super effective communication strategy. No political platforms like other parties have but innovative ideas, some of them would be classified as "left", others as "right", all of them stemming, he says, from "collaborative democracy".

You sign up for free on his platform. You get invited to events and workshops where you discuss policial subjects and put propositions in. All are young or less young but all look smart and intelligent.

You may contribute, but only if you want and as much as you want.

His "soldiers" (all young good looking in their 30s) go from door to door, asking questions such as :"What do you think works WELL in France at the moment?)."

He spreads optimism not negativism.

He targets electoral districts whith a changing voting landscape, from red to blue or blue to red. He targets the middle class.

He comes from a middle class family himself, is now a millionaire, worked in a bank, two years in the Hollande government as minister of the economy.
Forgive me for being an arch-cynical but it all sounds a bit vague and 'too good to be true'. And what and where are those ideas? The website of En Marche! is already defunct and is only available as an archive. A tad strange when it has only just started.
Also, there's a huge difference between 'worked in a bank' and 'was a very successful Rothschild banker'. He wasn't counting dimes and evaluating mortgages. He made decisions of a nature in which the interests are completely opposite to the interests of the general public.

Quote:
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Fillon is a conservative christian moron. Marine Le Pen a fascist. If the Socialists select Hannon, a friendly idealist lefty, on next Sunday as their candidate for the presidency, Macron has good chances to be one of the two winners of the first round of the presidential elections in April. That's my prediction.
And yet, indeed, amongst the available options he seems one of the better ones. Le Pen or Fillon. Nope.
And in France just like almost anywhere else the left is completely devoid of unity and viable candidates. It's actually our fault ('our' being anyone who identifies as left) that the right can get away with putting the most absurd people in power.
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  #24  
Old Jan 27th 2017, 02:38 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

I agree that it's too nice to be true. It's like the last-minute Saviour in a bunch of BS.

Macron's website is this one: http://vision-macron.fr/europe/

We need a pro-European French president, though, if we want to avoid the breaking up of Europe and a lot lot of mess here ...

Breaking: New episode Fillon is being accused to have employed his wife for a lot of money 400.000 € but doing nothing as his parlementary assistant and write two literrary notes for 100.000 € for a friend of his. Fillon has always presented himself as "Mr. Propre" - Mr. Clean - These findings are a death blow for him.
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  #25  
Old Jan 29th 2017, 02:34 AM
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Default Re: Political predictions

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I agree that it's too nice to be true. It's like the last-minute Saviour in a bunch of BS.

Macron's website is this one: http://vision-macron.fr/europe/

We need a pro-European French president, though, if we want to avoid the breaking up of Europe and a lot lot of mess here ...
With May cuddling up to Trump and What-The-Fuck Erdogan, the EU might be the big loser even without internal hassles. If the nouveaux authoritarians are going to align themselves, with the USA, UK, Russia, Turkey, etc. who the fuck is going to keep that lot in check?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sucre View Post
Breaking: New episode Fillon is being accused to have employed his wife for a lot of money 400.000 € but doing nothing as his parlementary assistant and write two literrary notes for 100.000 € for a friend of his. Fillon has always presented himself as "Mr. Propre" - Mr. Clean - These findings are a death blow for him.
That's just baffling. Do these people really think things like that won't come out? The Trump crowd has one thing right (and only one): those in the normal corridors of power are way too comfortable there. See also Hillary Clinton.
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  #26  
Old Mar 15th 2017, 12:16 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

Any prediction for the vote in the Netherlands?

With Erdogan mixing in the elections lately, I have a very bad, bad bad feeling ... Geert Wilders will not be able to join any coalition but if his party fare very high, this will be bad enough.
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  #27  
Old Mar 15th 2017, 08:52 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

Get fucked, Nazi scum!
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  #28  
Old Apr 19th 2017, 08:14 AM
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Default Re: Political predictions

Regarding French elections, here is a funny but quite accurate summary by John Oliver.

http://speech.konbini.com/news/video...r-john-oliver/

I agree with the French commentators in the video and disagree with John Oliver on one thing: Marine Le Pen will not win.

She is simply too impopular except within the 25% group of worshipers.

Besides that I am sure of nothing.

And nobody can seriously make any prediction, that is more than best guess or wishful thinking.

If Mélenchon - far left candidate, an admirer of Chavez and Maduro, surging in the polls in the last two weeks from 13% to 20% - wins the first round against Marine Le Pen this weekend, I will abstain on the second round on the 7th of May. Both of them want out of the European Union, they will not get my vote.

And I will ask for naturalisation in Germany on the next day. (I will be a refugee from France then )

Otherwise, we might get Fillon against Marine. The chances I go vote are 50% - 50%

Third and fourth possibility: Macron against Marine Le Pen or Macron against Mélenchon. I will vote for Macron in both cases as well as on Sunday this week, the 23rd of April.

Sorry, no better prediction that that... Maybe you know better ...
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  #29  
Old Apr 19th 2017, 12:01 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

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Originally Posted by Sucre View Post
Regarding French elections, here is a funny but quite accurate summary by John Oliver.

http://speech.konbini.com/news/video...r-john-oliver/

I agree with the French commentators in the video and disagree with John Oliver on one thing: Marine Le Pen will not win.

She is simply too impopular except within the 25% group of worshipers.

Besides that I am sure of nothing.

And nobody can seriously make any prediction, that is more than best guess or wishful thinking.

If Mélenchon - far left candidate, an admirer of Chavez and Maduro, surging in the polls in the last two weeks from 13% to 20% - wins the first round against Marine Le Pen this weekend, I will abstain on the second round on the 7th of May. Both of them want out of the European Union, they will not get my vote.

And I will ask for naturalisation in Germany on the next day. (I will be a refugee from France then )

Otherwise, we might get Fillon against Marine. The chances I go vote are 50% - 50%

Third and fourth possibility: Macron against Marine Le Pen or Macron against Mélenchon. I will vote for Macron in both cases as well as on Sunday this week, the 23rd of April.

Sorry, no better prediction that that... Maybe you know better ...
Imho abstaining from voting is how you get Le Pen in office.

That's how we got Trump.
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  #30  
Old Apr 20th 2017, 12:34 PM
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Imho abstaining from voting is how you get Le Pen in office.

That's how we got Trump.
I will not abstain on the 23rd although none of the candidates is really ideal.
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