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Old Apr 16th 2018, 08:21 AM
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Default Odds of impeachment?

So, in light of recent events (particularly Michael Cohen's records being seized, Ryan's and other retirements, and the surprisingly vitriolic response of some of Trump's formerly ardent supporters to his strike on Syria), I think we may have reached a point of more or less even odds that the president gets impeached in his first term.

If Mueller or the FBI office that raided Cohen come up with anything even remotely criminal, it'll be incredibly hard, politically, for Democrats to vote 'no' on an impeachment vote, given how much their base despises Trump. And if the Democrats control the House next year, the part of Trump's agenda that panders to his base will be dead in the water. He'll have very little left to offer his party and I'm guessing a sufficient number of Republican House members will be willing to cross the aisle in order to distance themselves from a useless and constantly embarrassing executive.

I also suspect that, if the Dems take the House, Trump will flip the script and totally abandon his stance on immigration in order to try and score a "win" with the new Congress, which should sufficiently tick-off his base to make an impeachment vote palatable for moderate republicans. He's already on pretty thin ice there (Coulter, who wrote, "In Trump We Trust" has more or less disowned him, Alex Jones responded to the strike on Syria by declaring "F--- Trump!", Tucker Carlson turned on him for the same reason...). It's hard to imagine Congress delivering anything else major before the election, especially with Ryan now on his way out.

Anyway, definitely not a sure thing, but I feel like we're reaching the 50/50 mark on the chance of seeing America's third presidential impeachment.

Thoughts?
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Old Apr 16th 2018, 06:14 PM
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Default Re: Odds of impeachment?

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Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
So, in light of recent events (particularly Michael Cohen's records being seized, Ryan's and other retirements, and the surprisingly vitriolic response of some of Trump's formerly ardent supporters to his strike on Syria), I think we may have reached a point of more or less even odds that the president gets impeached in his first term.

If Mueller or the FBI office that raided Cohen come up with anything even remotely criminal, it'll be incredibly hard, politically, for Democrats to vote 'no' on an impeachment vote, given how much their base despises Trump. And if the Democrats control the House next year, the part of Trump's agenda that panders to his base will be dead in the water. He'll have very little left to offer his party and I'm guessing a sufficient number of Republican House members will be willing to cross the aisle in order to distance themselves from a useless and constantly embarrassing executive.

I also suspect that, if the Dems take the House, Trump will flip the script and totally abandon his stance on immigration in order to try and score a "win" with the new Congress, which should sufficiently tick-off his base to make an impeachment vote palatable for moderate republicans. He's already on pretty thin ice there (Coulter, who wrote, "In Trump We Trust" has more or less disowned him, Alex Jones responded to the strike on Syria by declaring "F--- Trump!", Tucker Carlson turned on him for the same reason...). It's hard to imagine Congress delivering anything else major before the election, especially with Ryan now on his way out.

Anyway, definitely not a sure thing, but I feel like we're reaching the 50/50 mark on the chance of seeing America's third presidential impeachment.

Thoughts?
I say it all hangs on the mid-terms. If Republicans hold a majority in either the House or Senate after November, no matter how small that majority is, then I'd say the odds of impeachment are zero.

If Democrats gain the House and Senate in November, I'd think they'd be fools to play this impeachment game. It would be a waste of political capital, it would make Trump a martyr and it would fire up the Republican base which is already so far out there, they are entirely irrational. Like, if the Democrats control Congress, why bother with impeachment? That's a fool's game with a very high political cost just to throw a bone to the leftwing base and make VP Pence president. That would be politically foolish.

But I'll make one prediction - impeachment would be 100% pure Democratic party play. The Republicans will not play along. Republicans would be fools to give even one single vote to a Democratic party attempt at impeachment. Given that the Republicans have demonstrated remarkable party discipline over the last ten years or so, I think they will have no problem holding the line on an impeachment vote. Democrats of course have ZERO reputation for party discipline and would likely have defectors against any impeachment vote. And impeachment requires 2/3 majority vote. I doubt if the Democrats could succeed even if they had slim majorities in both houses post-November.
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Old Apr 16th 2018, 06:23 PM
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Default Re: Odds of impeachment?

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Originally Posted by Michael View Post
I say it all hangs on the mid-terms. If Republicans hold a majority in either the House or Senate after November, no matter how small that majority is, then I'd say the odds of impeachment are zero.

If Democrats gain the House and Senate in November, I'd think they'd be fools to play this impeachment game. It would be a waste of political capital, it would make Trump a martyr and it would fire up the Republican base which is already so far out there, they are entirely irrational. Like, if the Democrats control Congress, why bother with impeachment? That's a fool's game with a very high political cost just to throw a bone to the leftwing base and make VP Pence president. That would be politically foolish.

But I'll make one prediction - impeachment would be 100% pure Democratic party play. The Republicans will not play along. Republicans would be fools to give even one single vote to a Democratic party attempt at impeachment. Given that the Republicans have demonstrated remarkable party discipline over the last ten years or so, I think they will have no problem holding the line on an impeachment vote. Democrats of course have ZERO reputation for party discipline and would likely have defectors against any impeachment vote. And impeachment requires 2/3 majority vote. I doubt if the Democrats could succeed even if they had slim majorities in both houses post-November.
Itíd have to be something really major for the Senate to vote him out of office, even if the dems take a majority of it. From a political perspective, the dems are better off with an impeached and crippled president trump than with a president Pence. I donít see it happening with a clear and serious crime tied directly to him. But I think the House is much more likely to impeach, even if thereís no chance of a removal coming from the Senate.
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Old Apr 16th 2018, 06:47 PM
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Default Re: Odds of impeachment?

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Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
Itíd have to be something really major for the Senate to vote him out of office, even if the dems take a majority of it. From a political perspective, the dems are better off with an impeached and crippled president trump than with a president Pence. I donít see it happening with a clear and serious crime tied directly to him. But I think the House is much more likely to impeach, even if thereís no chance of a removal coming from the Senate.
I think the Democrats are much better off leaving Trump in office no matter what, letting the investigations roll-up all his insiders. It just paints a nice picture that the Republicans are all corrupt. If you try to impeach Trump, you focus everything on him - and if you succeed, you still have President Pence and let the Republicans play "it was just one bad apple". What's the gain here?
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