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  #31  
Old Apr 20th 2017, 06:28 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

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Originally Posted by Sucre View Post
I will not abstain on the 23rd although none of the candidates is really ideal.
Ah ok. I think I misunderstood the structure of your election.
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  #32  
Old Apr 21st 2017, 05:58 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

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Imho abstaining from voting is how you get Le Pen in office.

That's how we got Trump.
That's not the whole picture or reason Trump got elected, but it probably was part of it.
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  #33  
Old Apr 22nd 2017, 09:26 AM
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Default Re: Political predictions

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That's not the whole picture or reason Trump got elected, but it probably was part of it.
Oh it's a vast oversimplification, but there was a healthy amount of people who looked at the bile he was spewing and basically said that stopping that is somebody else's job.
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  #34  
Old Apr 24th 2017, 05:59 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

Results:

Macron leads with 24%
Le Pen with 21.3%
Fillon 20%
Melenchon 19.6%
and then a few others under 7%.

I guess that means Macron vs Le Pen for the run-off.
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  #35  
Old Apr 25th 2017, 11:37 AM
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Default Re: Political predictions

Yes, on the 7th of May.

Macron is given as favorite by a 20% margin.

Yesterday evening, she was explaining how she can win this race (she mentioned a 10% margin plus a couple of other lies).
https://www.facebook.com/MarineLePen...7585850591065/

It will be tough. The far left (Mélenchon = 20%) is ready not to vote because Macron is an ultra-liberal whose politics will anyway lead to fascism. If the abstention is too high she has a chance against the elitist Macron.

I have never been stressed so much by an election.
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  #36  
Old Apr 25th 2017, 06:00 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

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Originally Posted by Sucre View Post
Yes, on the 7th of May.

Macron is given as favorite by a 20% margin.

Yesterday evening, she was explaining how she can win this race (she mentioned a 10% margin plus a couple of other lies).
https://www.facebook.com/MarineLePen...7585850591065/

It will be tough. The far left (Mélenchon = 20%) is ready not to vote because Macron is an ultra-liberal whose politics will anyway lead to fascism. If the abstention is too high she has a chance against the elitist Macron.

I have never been stressed so much by an election.
Presumably Fillon's 20% support would mostly go to Macron rather than Le Pen, that should give Fillon a fairly solid leading position?

Personally, I can't see Le Pen gaining too much. I don't see Le Pen as the type to be anyone's second choice. If they like Le Pen, they voted for her already.

That being said, I can see your point about the ugly choice. But then again, the Americans elected Trump over Hillary Clinton, so who the fuck knows what might happen.
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  #37  
Old Apr 25th 2017, 10:16 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

Hope France holds the line.
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  #38  
Old Apr 26th 2017, 07:05 AM
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Default Re: Political predictions

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Hope France holds the line.
So, just to be clear, we're relying on France to "hold the line" against the expansion of racist nationalism?

Well I don't see how that could possibly go badly...
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  #39  
Old Apr 26th 2017, 02:02 PM
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So, just to be clear, we're relying on France to "hold the line" against the expansion of racist nationalism?

Well I don't see how that could possibly go badly...
Ass.
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  #40  
Old May 2nd 2017, 11:39 AM
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Default Re: Political predictions

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Originally Posted by Michael View Post
Presumably Fillon's 20% support would mostly go to Macron rather than Le Pen, that should give Fillon a fairly solid leading position?
For many "Fillonistes", Macron is too left-wing: too keynsian in economic terms and, more importantly, not focused on national identity/ muslim v. Christian etc.

This part of the electorate will move over to MLP.

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Originally Posted by Michael View Post
Personally, I can't see Le Pen gaining too much. I don't see Le Pen as the type to be anyone's second choice. If they like Le Pen, they voted for her already.
Part of the electorate that voted left may be attracted to her protectionist anti-globalisation stance ; part of the electorate that voted right to her nationalistic stance.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael View Post
That being said, I can see your point about the ugly choice. But then again, the Americans elected Trump over Hillary Clinton, so who the fuck knows what might happen.
The level of abstention will be key. "Ni ... ni" ... Neither Le Pen, the racist nationalist, nor Macron the social liberal say some.

I want this election to be over. Already fell out with some friends ...
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