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  #11  
Old Jun 9th 2009, 09:39 PM
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Default Re: The Great Recession

You might find this interesting, the German position on military status of employment:

"Other manipulations
The AKE annual benchmark data refer to a specific month or week (generally in April). The "OECD-1 method" estimation procedure is used to infer period averages (quarterly in this case). By this method, annualised data from the two secondary sources are fixed at the AKE levels by calculating scaling factors. Higher frequency factors are then interpolated using the secondary data sources. These are applied to the AKE data to achieve quarterly estimates of employment and unemployment. National data from the microcensus and the Federal Ministry of Defense are used to calculate quarterly figures on the number of military personnel which are subtracted from total employment to arrive at total civilian employment."

One thing democracies have become very proficient in is statistical manipulation for political purposes. No successful private entity business plans other than banking without fair market value rules, Ponzi Schemes and other frauds could allow estimated or cooked statistics as a base criterion.

http://stats.oecd.org/mei/default.as...18&country=DEU
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  #12  
Old Jun 10th 2009, 09:39 AM
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Default Re: The Great Recession

To translate that German bureaucratize, that means that the Germans don't count their military as being "employed" for the purpose of calculating the unemployment figure.

The US unemployment statistics do count US military as "employed" (which makes the US unemployment figure appear lower than it actually is).

It would be interesting to find some confirmation on how everyone else treats parolees since the US unemployment figures just pretend they don't exist (and they constitute about 3% of US working population) - they are just erased out of the calculation.
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Old Jun 10th 2009, 12:38 PM
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While I understand counting those in the armed forces (full-time) as employed and while I can understand excluding those in prison (as they are not actively seeking work which is a necassary characteristic of someone unemployed. Rather thay are economically inactive) I can't for the life of me understand why parolees are excluded.
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  #14  
Old Jun 10th 2009, 12:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leprechaun View Post
While I understand counting those in the armed forces (full-time) as employed and while I can understand excluding those in prison (as they are not actively seeking work which is a necassary characteristic of someone unemployed. Rather thay are economically inactive) I can't for the life of me understand why parolees are excluded.
I should think it is obvious that the 'goal' is to fudge the unemployment statistic to make it look better than it really is in order to help delude Americans into thinking that their economic system is better than anyone elses. This is highly beneficial to the Washington political and media elite class.
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Old Jun 10th 2009, 01:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leprechaun View Post
While I understand counting those in the armed forces (full-time) as employed and while I can understand excluding those in prison (as they are not actively seeking work which is a necassary characteristic of someone unemployed. Rather thay are economically inactive) I can't for the life of me understand why parolees are excluded.
Military are not employed in a position of economic contribution other than flow-through from public funds, distorting total workforce count and subsequently understating unemployment percentages. Not actively seeking work, which also includes non-prisoners, is another labor department dodge to reduce publicized unemployment, as is counting part-time workers at the same statistical level as full-time employed.To we bean counters, cooked numbers that don't satisfy anything but political whims.
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Old Jun 10th 2009, 01:05 PM
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Default Re: The Great Recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael View Post
I should think it is obvious that the 'goal' is to fudge the unemployment statistic to make it look better than it really is in order to help delude Americans into thinking that their economic system is better than anyone elses. This is highly beneficial to the Washington political and media elite class.
Indeed, much of the right (well what we consider right-wing) here often mentions America's consistantly low unemployment rate as an argument for a more right-wing economic approach however this suggests that they are wrong. They are gaining in Ireland (although it remains to be seen in the economic turmoil at the moment, they may have taken a huge hit but nobody really knows. I would be interested in information about the trend of real unemployment in America vs. Europe over the last few decades. What interests me most here however is that while this 'low' unemployment rate is supposed to herald extremo-captialism it can only be calculated by including soldiers who are employed in......the public sector!! (ish) and that is before we investigate the spin-off jobs etc.
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  #17  
Old Jun 10th 2009, 01:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leprechaun View Post
Indeed, much of the right (well what we consider right-wing) here often mentions America's consistantly low unemployment rate as an argument for a more right-wing economic approach however this suggests that they are wrong. They are gaining in Ireland (although it remains to be seen in the economic turmoil at the moment, they may have taken a huge hit but nobody really knows. I would be interested in information about the trend of real unemployment in America vs. Europe over the last few decades. What interests me most here however is that while this 'low' unemployment rate is supposed to herald extremo-captialism it can only be calculated by including soldiers who are employed in......the public sector!! (ish) and that is before we investigate the spin-off jobs etc.
Basically the 'rightwing' in every western country likes to cite the 'low' US unemployment figures as justification for introducting more rightwing policies to that country.

It should be no surprise to anyone that this 'data' is fake.

It also should be obvious that all the countries that did take US economic advice over the last fifteen years are the countries that have the most seriously fucked up economic problems now (UK, Iceland, Ireland, Poland, Latvia, Estonia and Poland to name the most notable).
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  #18  
Old Jun 10th 2009, 01:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Michael View Post
Basically the 'rightwing' in every western country likes to cite the 'low' US unemployment figures as justification for introducting more rightwing policies to that country.

It should be no surprise to anyone that this 'data' is fake.

It also should be obvious that all the countries that did take US economic advice over the last fifteen years are the countries that have the most seriously fucked up economic problems now (UK, Iceland, Ireland, Poland, Latvia, Estonia and Poland to name the most notable).
I'd venture a guess that under 5% of Americans even know how US unemployment is calculated? Or the micro-census method of telephone calls to a select group of people actively seeking or not seeking work being extrapolated to, questionable numbers?
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  #19  
Old Jul 30th 2009, 03:04 PM
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Default Re: The Great Recession

After the "dragon-tank" piece was this gem from the Onion:

Guests react to insta-poll

This is so frightening close to the truth out there right now that it made me laugh and cry almost simultaneously. The optimist in me kept laughing.
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  #20  
Old Jul 31st 2009, 07:00 AM
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Default Re: The Great Recession

Quote:
Originally Posted by Americano View Post
I'd venture a guess that under 5% of Americans even know how US unemployment is calculated? Or the micro-census method of telephone calls to a select group of people actively seeking or not seeking work being extrapolated to, questionable numbers?
*raises hand* I honestly have no clue how the unemployment numbers are calculated. The only thing I know about unemployment is that it is a lagging indicator of economic recovery, and I could be wrong about that one.

Care to enlighten a economics-challenged American?
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