Where in the hell...

[Michael]

Originally Posted by partofme

I saw this today.

New York Times article on Sadr followers in the recent election.

Wow! That article is almost flattering to my favorite pudgy little bearded cleric!

(And please note that my admiration for Sadr comes not from his anti-Americanism - for him, I'm certain that is entirely a political expression).

By the way, here's the 'money quote' from the article...

Originally Posted by NYTimes

Since 2003, the Sadrists have refused any contact with the American military or diplomats.

“It would be helpful if they would change their policy,” one American official lamented on Tuesday.

But America’s loss will not necessarily be Iran’s gain. In a vivid illustration of Iranian power here, it cajoled the Sadrists to join the Supreme Council in their electoral coalition, even though the two fought in the streets a few years before. The two still air their feuds in public. But many politicians believe the Sadrists, long seen as more nationalist than other religious Shiite parties, will prove less pliable for Iran.

Mr. Sadr “is not the easiest of customers for Iran to deal with,” the diplomat said.

Indeed. I admire Sadr because he is an Iraqi nationalist, who will never be an Iranian or American toady. I believe that this is what Iraq needs more than anything else - its own political future on its own terms. Iraq's democracy is a fragile one right now - it needs a good dose of nationalist passion to make it real. Time will eventually turn those nationalist passions into institutions of real democracy. But without nationalist passion, the newborn Iraqi democratic state could be stillborn, overwhelmed by powerful interested parties in USA and Iran, seeking to use Iraq for their own political purposes.

Given Sadr's family bloodline (descent from Mohammad), high clerical tradition, powerful local family dynasty and his own charisma and wits, I believe he has what it takes to see to it that Iraq gets its best chance. In the style and tradition of his clerical convictions, Sadr seeks to lead from behind. I applaud this approach to politics in fiercely Muslim countries of particularly fragile condition. That's why I like this fellow - I like him because I think he's good for Iraq. And Iraq needs a hero - or at least a noisy conscience!

[Michael]

Well Sadr has gone from 'pariah' to 'kingmaker' awfully quick.

I've just read two different analysts refer to Sadr as the 'kingmaker' for this election (including Juan Cole).

And that means Malaki will not be reappointed as Prime Minister since he is a personal enemy of the Sadrists. It is likely the PM will be a new name to westerners.

State of Law + Kurds + Sadr is a dominant ruling coalition and it looks like this is what is happening.

[Donkey]

Originally Posted by Michael

Well Sadr has gone from 'pariah' to 'kingmaker' awfully quick.

I've just read two different analysts refer to Sadr as the 'kingmaker' for this election (including Juan Cole).

And that means Malaki will not be reappointed as Prime Minister since he is a personal enemy of the Sadrists. It is likely the PM will be a new name to westerners.

State of Law + Kurds + Sadr is a dominant ruling coalition and it looks like this is what is happening.

Can you link to a couple of those? I have some "That bold assertion I made two years ago was on the mark" to do with a history teacher.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by Donkey

Can you link to a couple of those? I have some "That bold assertion I made two years ago was on the mark" to do with a history teacher.

Roger that. Here's Juan Cole.

Thursday, March 25, 2010
Sadr Emerging as Kingmaker in Iraqi Intelligence;
Will Muqtada demand Quicker US Withdrawal

The London pan-Arab daily al-Hayat [Life] reports in Arabic that that the Shiite State of Law coalition and the Shiite Iraqi National Alliance say they are prepared to make an alliance before they enter the new parliament. This move reduces the chance that current prime minister Nuri al-Maliki will get a second term.

The State of Law said it had negotiated without preconditions, considering that who fills the post of prime minister is less important that for the two parties to arrive at a common plan. The fundamentalist Iraqi National Alliance groups Muqtada al-Sadr's Free Independents with Ammar al-Hakim's Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and other religious Shiite parties. The paper's contacts in that movement likewise affirmed that the National Iraqi Alliance is eager to form some sort of united front with the State of Law coalition, in accordance with 'countless political calculations.'

Sadiq al-Rikabi of the Islamic Mission Party, the core component of the State of Law List, told al-Hayat that it was important for his party to reach a common vision with the National Iraqi Alliance. He said that the two had a common notion of confronting challenges. He said it is not important at this point to name a prime minister, and that other details can be worked out first.

The Sadrists, the leading bloc within the National Iraqi Alliance, deeply dislike al-Maliki because he sent the army in after their paramilitary, the Mahdi Army, in both Basra and Sadr City in spring-summer of 2008. The State of Law may well have to sacrifice him to get an alliance with the more religious Shiite parties.

Abdul Hadi al-Hassani of the State of Law also announced talks toward merging the two blocs. He said that the two 'agree on most issues,' aside from the question of who should be prime minister and how to distribute cabinet posts by party, as well as how to run the executive branch. He said he expected the two to merge, given that they were most compatible in their platforms. He downplayed Sadrist dislike of al-Maliki and said what was important is that the two have a similar governing structure and could settle issues by a vote. He envisaged a further partnership, with the Kurdistan Alliance and with the Accord Front (Sunni fundamentalists).

It sounds as though the State of Law leadership is entirely prepared to throw al-Maliki under the bus to get the votes required to form a government.

The State of Law could end up with over 90 seats, and the National Iraqi Alliance may well get over 70. An alliance would take them very close to the 163 seats needed to govern Iraq. State of Law says it is also working on an partnership with the Kurdistan Alliance, which would be needed to elect a president on the first ballot.


A Shiite alliance plus the Kurds recalls the governing coalition of 2005 and after, which cannot be good news for the US. Al-Sadr may well make his joining the coalition conditional on al-Maliki stepping down and an acceleration of the timetable for US troop withdrawal.

Source
Cole also provides a link for the original in Arabic if you want it.

I'll look around for the other reference I noted (I can't remember where I read it).

[Donkey]

Don't sweat it. This teacher can always read ye olde arabique version if she would like.

[Michael]

And here's another one from the Times-UK...

Anti-Western militia leader Moqtada al-Sadr holds balance of power

Hojatoleslam Moqtada al-Sadr, the firebrand cleric whose militants fought British troops in Basra before being driven out by Iraqi forces, has emerged as a potential kingmaker in the next government.

The Sadrist Movement, the political arm of al-Mahdi Army, is believed to have won between 30 and 40 seats in the 325-member Parliament in this month’s elections — giving it the balance of power while the two main contenders for prime minister jockey for position.

Ayad Allawi’s Iraqiya group and Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law list appear to have won just under 90 seats each. They need 163 to form a majority and choose the next leader.

Even with the support of the Kurdish bloc and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq either grouping would fall short — hence both are courting Hojatoleslam al-Sadr. “The Sadrists look like the kingmakers in this,” a Western diplomat said. “It’s not quite clear what they would want in return for their support.”

Source

Btw, notice the never-ending bias in western media against Sadr. I particularly like the framing of the Sadr movement as the 'political arm' of the al-Madhi Army! Methinks someone is playing a propaganda game here and is unware of the long history of involvement of the Sadr family in Bagdhad politics - long before the al-Madhi Army appeared. But one gets used to this kind of thing when one reads western news sources!

[Michael]

Originally Posted by Donkey

Can you link to a couple of those? I have some "That bold assertion I made two years ago was on the mark" to do with a history teacher.

Indeed, I am quite enjoying the fact that my analysis of Iraq and Sadr has turned out consistently quite close to the mark - unlike most western-based mainstream/professional analysts!

[Donkey]

NPR is discussing al Sadr now... the Sadrist mastery of election law is impressive. And now (inside the Sadr movement), they are going to vote on a PM.

[Donkey]

This thread needs some pictures...

[Michael]

Gotta love that first picture! Its got a bit of that 'Darth-Sadr' look about him!


That's Mookie on the left, martyred daddy-Sadr ayatollah on the right.

Big crowds waving your picture is a sure sign of grassroots power.

And al-Sadr is impressive just by surviving. I can't imagine how many times a price has been put on his head.