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Old Apr 19th 2017, 12:01 PM
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Default Re: Political predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sucre View Post
Regarding French elections, here is a funny but quite accurate summary by John Oliver.

http://speech.konbini.com/news/video...r-john-oliver/

I agree with the French commentators in the video and disagree with John Oliver on one thing: Marine Le Pen will not win.

She is simply too impopular except within the 25% group of worshipers.

Besides that I am sure of nothing.

And nobody can seriously make any prediction, that is more than best guess or wishful thinking.

If Mélenchon - far left candidate, an admirer of Chavez and Maduro, surging in the polls in the last two weeks from 13% to 20% - wins the first round against Marine Le Pen this weekend, I will abstain on the second round on the 7th of May. Both of them want out of the European Union, they will not get my vote.

And I will ask for naturalisation in Germany on the next day. (I will be a refugee from France then )

Otherwise, we might get Fillon against Marine. The chances I go vote are 50% - 50%

Third and fourth possibility: Macron against Marine Le Pen or Macron against Mélenchon. I will vote for Macron in both cases as well as on Sunday this week, the 23rd of April.

Sorry, no better prediction that that... Maybe you know better ...
Imho abstaining from voting is how you get Le Pen in office.

That's how we got Trump.
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