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  #31  
Old Jun 29th 2011, 03:38 PM
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Default Re: The Facebook Exodus

This video is a little sensationalist, but I think it illustrates nicely why an exodus from facebook (or myspace, or whatever) isn't necessarily relevant in the overall social media phenomenon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0Enh...layer_embedded
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  #32  
Old Jun 29th 2011, 05:52 PM
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Default Re: The Facebook Exodus

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Originally Posted by NickKIELCEPoland View Post
Yes, but it is enough for me that the point is made that newspapers sometimes publish pictures wthout the permission of the peeople in the pictures.
Newspapers also publish lies as a matter of course. They have no obligation to be honest, or to respect privacy or cover any issue. Why anyone respects or trusts newspapers (or any mass media) is beyond me.

They lie for profit. That's their business model.
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  #33  
Old Jun 29th 2011, 05:54 PM
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Default Re: The Facebook Exodus

Michael, do you hear me protesting at what you are saying about newspapers???
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  #34  
Old Jun 30th 2011, 01:56 PM
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Default Re: The Facebook Exodus



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  #35  
Old Jun 30th 2011, 02:00 PM
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Default Re: The Facebook Exodus



Yeah, pretty much.

And, interestingly, I think that captures the problem with the social media business model. When the only thing you offer to your "customers" is other "customers", you're kinda SOL when fads and fashions shift and the fickle public wants a new "it" thing.

(And yes, I recognize that Facebook's users aren't actually its customers)
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  #36  
Old Jun 30th 2011, 02:27 PM
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Default Re: The Facebook Exodus

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Originally Posted by drgoodtrips View Post


Yeah, pretty much.

And, interestingly, I think that captures the problem with the social media business model. When the only thing you offer to your "customers" is other "customers", you're kinda SOL when fads and fashions shift and the fickle public wants a new "it" thing.

(And yes, I recognize that Facebook's users aren't actually its customers)
Well I think with this google plus shit, or whatever it is, it speaks to what that video talks about. Twitter doesn't act as competition to facebook, even though ostensibly it should. It's a thickening and broadening of the Web 2.0 (gonna go beat myself silly for using the term). No reason that some google shit won't mesh with facebook like Twitter has. When facebook goes the way of the dodo, it will be because the network has evolved past it, not because the network is going away.

It's like the boards used to lay concrete. If you just pour the concrete out, it'll be a big puddle. If you pour it into a board frame, after it dries you can take the boards off and the concrete is still standing.


Imperfect analogy, I know.
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  #37  
Old Jun 30th 2011, 05:45 PM
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Default Re: The Facebook Exodus

Slightly off-topic, but the history of the web seems to show that 'first-mover advantage' and 'incumbancy' aren't really worth anything in the long run.

If it was, MySpace would rule Facebook's world, and we'd all still be using Yahoo and not Google.

On this basis, I see precisely ZERO reasons to predict that Facebook will be anything more than a shadow of its present self in 5-8 years from now.

Anyone remember when AOL ruled the internet? How about the instant messenger craze? All just fads that came and went.

Amazon and eBay succeeded not because they were first, but because they are clearly well managed companies with a successful business model.
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  #38  
Old Jun 30th 2011, 06:41 PM
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Default Re: The Facebook Exodus

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Originally Posted by Michael View Post
Slightly off-topic, but the history of the web seems to show that 'first-mover advantage' and 'incumbancy' aren't really worth anything in the long run.

If it was, MySpace would rule Facebook's world, and we'd all still be using Yahoo and not Google.

On this basis, I see precisely ZERO reasons to predict that Facebook will be anything more than a shadow of its present self in 5-8 years from now.

Anyone remember when AOL ruled the internet? How about the instant messenger craze? All just fads that came and went.

Amazon and eBay succeeded not because they were first, but because they are clearly well managed companies with a successful business model.
All true. But the real moral of the story (for me) is that the internet persists. It's like fashion: bell bottoms and tie-dye are out, but for some reason we're still all wearing pants and shirts.*


*more the shame.
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  #39  
Old Jun 30th 2011, 07:09 PM
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Default Re: The Facebook Exodus

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Originally Posted by Donkey View Post
Well I think with this google plus shit, or whatever it is, it speaks to what that video talks about. Twitter doesn't act as competition to facebook, even though ostensibly it should. It's a thickening and broadening of the Web 2.0 (gonna go beat myself silly for using the term). No reason that some google shit won't mesh with facebook like Twitter has. When facebook goes the way of the dodo, it will be because the network has evolved past it, not because the network is going away.

It's like the boards used to lay concrete. If you just pour the concrete out, it'll be a big puddle. If you pour it into a board frame, after it dries you can take the boards off and the concrete is still standing.


Imperfect analogy, I know.
Yeah, I mean I think the idea that people have more options for connecting with one another at their disposal isn't likely to disappear anytime soon. But, I also think that this can be done piggy-backed on top of things that already happen. We have all manner of "internet capable" devices, and that is only growing. The internet itself is a near-infinitely complex maze of different ways of exchanging information. I don't think that centralizing that (ala most social networking sites thus far) will be a lasting model compared with standardizing it and letting users choose how to access (ala email, a lot of IM services, cell phone carriers etc).

Maybe the next generation of social network will actually be an interoperating series of them that have their own niches. Twitter has a niche (albeit one that I don't care about, myself), LinkedIn has a niche, and the up and comers will probably have niches. I think Twitter will evolve into a marketing tool (moreso than it already is), LinkedIn into a job search tool (more than it already is) and up and comers will bring their own stuff to bear (google with its search, for instance). Hell, myspace is now a tool for would-be musicians more than a social networking site.

Eventually, I'd imagine that this will transform into users opting to use one or more of them and all of them interoperating, as you mention. Future social networking tools won't get a seat at the table unless they network with the others.

As for Facebook, what does it bring to the table besides 600 billion users, for the moment. What's its niche? Time-wasting games? Photo sharing? I think that they ought to find one, and quickly.
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  #40  
Old Jun 30th 2011, 07:12 PM
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Default Re: The Facebook Exodus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael View Post
Slightly off-topic, but the history of the web seems to show that 'first-mover advantage' and 'incumbancy' aren't really worth anything in the long run.

If it was, MySpace would rule Facebook's world, and we'd all still be using Yahoo and not Google.

On this basis, I see precisely ZERO reasons to predict that Facebook will be anything more than a shadow of its present self in 5-8 years from now.

Anyone remember when AOL ruled the internet? How about the instant messenger craze? All just fads that came and went.

Amazon and eBay succeeded not because they were first, but because they are clearly well managed companies with a successful business model.
Exactly. And, I would also add to this that Amazon and ebay are both sites where its users and customers are one and the same. The social networking sites lack this model - their users are not customers, but rather assets that they sell to their customers. AOL actually had a business model of customer and user being the same, but their business strategy was the absolute pinnacle of incompetence, so that couldn't save them.

The only exception I can think of that has demonstrated lasting staying power is google, and with Android and some of their other more recent offerings, they seem to be recognizing the wisdom of having users be customers.
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