H1N1 - Swine Flu Pandemic

[Michael]

We heard lots of noise about this topic a few months ago after a small outbreak in Mexico.

Apparently the virus is spreading throughout India & Indonesia right now (as it is their traditional 'flu season' with the monsoon rains). All schools and theaters in Mombai (aka Bombay) have been closed now for a week with several thousand cases reported, though the death toll still seems rather low (20).

Now I'm reading about how authorities here are talking about 25-35% infection rates. Serious preparations are underway regarding the potential for reductions in essential services due to shortage of staff (if 25-35% of employees start calling in sick, some emergency services can't function).

This looks rather serious...

Anyone else hearing anything about this topic?

P.S. I refuse to play political correctness on the PR attempt to change the name from Swine Flue to H1N1 in order to protect the industrial pig farming industry. I say piss on them - this flu comes from intensive industrial pig farming in the first place, so I see no reason to do them any favors. Indeed, if we're honest about the name of this flu, we could do some serious damage to the industrial pig farming industry which wouldn't be a bad thing.

[drgoodtrips]

Is the swine flu particularly nasty? From what I recall reading, it's on par with or less deadly than the regular flu, but it affects age demographics differently (affecting more young adults and fewer elderly/young than other kinds of flus).

[Michael]

Is the swine flu particularly nasty? From what I recall reading, it's on par with or less deadly than the regular flu, but it affects age demographics differently (affecting more young adults and fewer elderly/young than other kinds of flus).

Yes, it seems to affect demographics differently. It also tends to kill as well, though I don't know how this compares directly against other flu strains.

I'd suspect that this one is expected to produce higher death rates due to the incredible amount of preparations going on about it.

Perhaps Greendruid or Lily might know something about this...

[drgoodtrips]

Yes, it seems to affect demographics differently. It also tends to kill as well, though I don't know how this compares directly against other flu strains.

I'd suspect that this one is expected to produce higher death rates due to the incredible amount of preparations going on about it.

Perhaps Greendruid or Lily might know something about this...

The cynic in me says that preparation happens because it's new and scary. I mean, the regular flu kills a pretty staggering amount of people, but it's always greeted with a ho-hum every year.

[Michael]

The cynic in me says that preparation happens because it's new and scary. I mean, the regular flu kills a pretty staggering amount of people, but it's always greeted with a ho-hum every year.

Regular flu usually only kills ailing seniors. This flu can kill healthy people in their prime. That's a significant difference.

[drgoodtrips]

Regular flu usually only kills ailing seniors. This flu can kill healthy people in their prime. That's a significant difference.

Is that happening? When it was getting a lot of publicity back in May, I saw that the deaths attributed to it seemed to consist of very young children, seniors and the already sick.

[wphelan]

It also put a lot of downward pressure on the hog market due to its unfortunate name. Pork producers have been taking it on the chin for a while now, and this flu made things unnecessarily more difficult. That's about the extent of my knowledge of the subject.

[Lily]

I was just talking to one of the members of our local DMAT chapters. DMAT is the Disaster Medical Assistance Team, part of the Dept. of Health and Human Services and its members are volunteer federal employees. They are deployed nationally to respond to disasters and mass casualties.

Anyway, John was telling me that the Team has been told to expect a 35%-40% infection rate with the Swine Flu. If true, this magnitude of infection rate will decimate the workforce, shut businesses and make it impossible to provide the level of services Americans take for granted. It will be a true disaster. The DMAT teams nationally are actively recruiting physicians, nurses and paramedics. I'm considering joining the organization.

[Michael]

Yes, that's the kind of thing I've been reading about up here. They are making all kinds of plans to deal with massive levels of 'calling in sick' and expect this to cause critical problems for hospitals, police and fire departments just to name a couple of services. With 25-35% infection rates, that could easily mean 25% plus absenteeism at workplaces and that could really affect the efficient operation of such services.

The reports I'm reading are suggesting that such services in smaller towns are the ones going to feel the pinch the most since they have less of a 'pool' of workers to shift around to cover the shortages. Large cities have larger pools of employees and can thus 'shift' workers from one location to another if necessary to cover shortages of labor.

Likewise with smaller companies. A high absentee rate could virtually shut down a large number of businesses unable to function without a minimum level of labor. We have 30 employees - if 10 of them are off sick, the rest of us are going to have a huge problem functioning and probably would end up shutting down the production line since skilled labor is needed at every step of production and mistakes are expensive and can be dangerous.

Either way, this does look like it could be rather large and significant.

[Lily]

We're already short-staffed at our hospital. We're regularly shutting down an entire assignment of 5 beds in the ER. That means the entire ER is always full with patients and there are always patients in the waiting room. We don't eat, we barely get to pee. After a 12-hour shift, we're beat up. Call-outs are already rising along with injuries. I can only imagine what will happen when the flu starts taking people out.

[Lasher]

We're already short-staffed at our hospital. We're regularly shutting down an entire assignment of 5 beds in the ER. That means the entire ER is always full with patients and there are always patients in the waiting room. We don't eat, we barely get to pee. After a 12-hour shift, we're beat up. Call-outs are already rising along with injuries. I can only imagine what will happen when the flu starts taking people out.
Don't worry, Our Hero and Dear Leader Obama will make everything right soon.

[mrhealthguy]

Is that happening? When it was getting a lot of publicity back in May, I saw that the deaths attributed to it seemed to consist of very young children, seniors and the already sick.
Hope fully it gone now but i read @ many places to take flue shoots before start of winter.. So let's hope for all good

[Michael]

We just had a report yesterday from our local Public Health office stating that a few cases of Swine Flu has just been confirmed in Toronto.

[Lily]

We just had a report yesterday from our local Public Health office stating that a few cases of Swine Flu has just been confirmed in Toronto.

Thankfully, the H1N1 has been pretty mild in the majority of the cases I've seen. I was sick enough to be out of work two days. Although it took another week or so to get completely back to normal, it was just a lingering cough. Most of patients who are getting really ill, including the few who have died, have had underlying medical conditions.