Chinese Naval Power

[Michael]

Here's a good article giving a brief strategic overview of Chinese naval interests - and in particular, addressing the issue of Chinese aircraft carriers.

In case you guys have missed it, two of the big announcements out of the National People's Congress this past week are the call for Aircraft Carrier by Admiral Hu Yanlin and the 14.9% increase in military budget.

Source (http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/2009/03/some-thoughts-on-chinas-recent-military.html)

I think the article makes a good point that the Chinese have probably already started building a fleet-class aircraft carrier and that all these repeated 'announcements' about it are designed to soften everyone up for the official announcement it actually going ahead.

I also think the article makes a good point that China has reasonable and understandable reasons to increase the size and scope of their military power at this time. This is not an arms race - if anything, the Chinese navy lags behind places like Malaysia and Australia, let alone India.

In general, I'm in agreement with the main thrust of the article - that a large increase in the size and capability of the Chinese military is not a direct threat to the US. Indeed, there are indications that these developments suggest a reduction in military tensions over Taiwan.

Any thoughts on the growth of the Chinese military and/or the possibility of China operating carrier task force groups?

[Michael]

Apparently a little incident occured in the South China Sea this week - a US "spy ship" was pestered by a combination of some Chinese fishing trawlers & Chinese naval ships in the area near a highly important Chinese naval facility on the island of Hainan.

This is pretty common stuff. The US government officials deny the ship being in Chinese waters, but one can take that with a grain of salt.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and China's Foreign Minister, Yang Jiechi, both agreed on Wednesday that China and the U.S. should work to ensure that incidents like Sunday's showdown in the South China Sea "do not happen again." The incident in question involved several Chinese naval vessels harassing a U.S. surveillance ship off the island of Hainan. But despite the soothing words of the two top diplomats, it's a safe bet that more such incidents can be expected in the future. The Pentagon was quick to note that the mariners aboard the U.S.N.S. Impeccable were civilians working for the Military Sealift Command, while the Chinese side stressed that the confrontation involved local fishing boats.

The reality is that the incident occurred because both sides are preparing for war — "shaping the battlefield," in military jargon — for a conflict that both hope will never happen. emphasis added. Source (http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1884724,00.html)

Btw, this is a link to the US news report on it. Checkout the provocative slant on this news story - bolded above - and the linked article - no surprise where US cultural warmongering comes from here...

The first news story I read showed a photograph of two Chinese fishing trawlers very close to the US ship. This US news report doesn't show that.

[Michael]

Seems there's quite a bit of discussion going on out there about China's development of ASBM capability to destroy a ship at sea (i.e. US Carriers) using a ballistic missile.

Here's a link to some information about China's ASBM Development (http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/2009/03/plan-asbm-development.html) if anyone's interested...

[Michael]

Apparently a little incident occured in the South China Sea this week - a US "spy ship" was pestered by a combination of some Chinese fishing trawlers & Chinese naval ships in the area near a highly important Chinese naval facility on the island of Hainan.

This is pretty common stuff. The US government officials deny the ship being in Chinese waters, but one can take that with a grain of salt.

Here's more information on this incident. Apparently there was more here than first reported.

he People's Liberation Army Navy and the United States Navy just fought a running non-lethal battle off the coast of China, and the PLAN scored a tactical victory. Much of American media coverage focused on a single case of maritime harrassment, when some Chinese boats came way too close to USNS Impeccable, an unarmed Military Sealift Command sonar surveillance vessel. In reality, U.S. and Chinese ships and planes engaged in an escalating jousting match that stretched over nearly a week, involving almost every conceivable means of close-quarters physical engagement short of actually shelling or trying to board one another. Part of the action occurred 70 miles off China's new underground nuclear submarine base at Yulin, at the southern tip of Hainan Island facing deep water in the South China Sea.
Source (http://www.defensetech.org/)

Looks like the Chinese were playing hardball and the US spy ship withdrew to safety.

[Michael]

Here's another interesting article on the advancements the Chinese have been making in the field of ASBM (Anti-ship-ballistic-missile) - potentially the Chinese have developed a technological advantage here that the USA does not possess.

This is of enormous significance for US strategic planning because it is understood that this does pose a potentially significant threat to US Carrier groups.

Seems the consensus is that the existing US AEGIS systems may be unable to address this type of threat.

Chinese schematic diagrams show an ASBM flight trajectory with mid-course and terminal guidance. Second stage control fins would be critical to steering the ASBM through terminal maneuvers to evade countermeasures and home in on a moving target. This makes an ASBM different from most ballistic missiles, which have a fixed trajectory.

Source (http://www.informationdissemination.net/2009/06/important-chinese-asbm-article.html)

If this is true (or likely to become true in the next decade), the US Navy is going to have to invest many, many billions in new ships with far larger and more sophisticated radar/sensor arrays. The power for this type of equipment pretty much means a whole new line of large nuclear powered cruisers ($5 or $6 billion each).

US Naval procurement is already stretched to the maximum just meeting present fleet turnover requiremnts. To address this threat will require a substantially large INCREASE in defense spending.

[Michael]

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_cys2T5FgJdo/SzJBkMWJIqI/AAAAAAAAHYg/W3MxnPPxzvk/s1600/Type054A.jpg
Type 54 Chinese Frigate

Military blogs are reporting that a 4th Chinese frigate (another Type 54) has just been added to the anti-piracy fleet operating off the coast of Somalia. China also has a tender/supply ship there as well.

This makes the Chinese Navy the second largest contributor of warships to the anti-piracy fleet (2nd only to the US Navy). Actually, the Chinese Navy has the largest number of warships but is surpassed by US Navy tonnage.

This is quite remarkable given that ten years ago, China had no 'blue water' fleet to speak of. Yet now, they are operating in 'blue water' here with a substantial naval fleet contribution, a long way from home.

Once again, China's ability to 'grow' is truly impressive.

(btw, I love frigates - coolest ships on the high seas - in case anyone is curious, frigates are the smallest category of ocean-going warship)

[Zarquon]

Once again, China's ability to 'grow' is truly impressive.

Indeed, Deng Xiaoping's maxim "Hide your strength, bide your time, and do what you can." appears to have been followed and how.
Socialism with Chinese characteristics would appear to be working well, if you ignore human rights and freedom; the only two problems are:
The overheating of the economy and the bubble-like situation created by the massive credit surge by Chinese banks; and the hostility to China's benign influence- Investments by China (http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1943087,00.html) in Africa and Asia are facing roadblocks and backlashes due to their mistreatment of local workers and flagrant disregard for local laws, and generally bringing along Chinese workers to the jobs and depriving the local economy of major benefits.
Thus, my nomination of the CPC or Wen Jiabao as 'political star of 2009''.

[Michael]

Indeed, Deng Xiaoping's maxim "Hide your strength, bide your time, and do what you can." appears to have been followed and how.
Socialism with Chinese characteristics would appear to be working well, if you ignore human rights and freedom; the only two problems are:
The overheating of the economy and the bubble-like situation created by the massive credit surge by Chinese banks; and the hostility to China's benign influence- Investments by China (http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1943087,00.html) in Africa and Asia are facing roadblocks and backlashes due to their mistreatment of local workers and flagrant disregard for local laws, and generally bringing along Chinese workers to the jobs and depriving the local economy of major benefits.
Thus, my nomination of the CPC or Wen Jiabao as 'political star of 2009''.
Yes "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" may have been Deng's cute phrase thirty years ago, but I think the phrase is just PR now since China has been embracing capitalism on a large scale for the last couple of decades.

Its more like 'Chinese capitalism with socialist characteristics' now.

And I recall becoming quite impressed with Deng back in the 1980s. He is indeed the greatest of Chinese leaders.

[Zarquon]

Yes "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" may have been Deng's cute phrase thirty years ago, but I think the phrase is just PR now since China has been embracing capitalism on a large scale for the last couple of decades.

Its more like 'Chinese capitalism with socialist characteristics' now.

And I recall becoming quite impressed with Deng back in the 1980s. He is indeed the greatest of Chinese leaders.
Thus, the qualification of with Chinese characteristics, otherwise they'd just call it socialism, so no need to rephrase it.
And Deng wasn't the best leader, that would be Zhao Ziyang (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang).

[Michael]

Apparently, the Japanese have just ended their contribution to the allied forces serving anti-piracy patrols off Somalia (due to domestic politics). Up until now, the Japanese Maritime services have been providing long-distance re-fueling services for the assembled (multi-national) fleet.

In a move sure to ruffle some feathers in Tokyo, New Delhi and Washington, China has officially offered to step in and take over responsibility for this re-fueling function.

It doesn't sound like much - unless you realize the full implications of this proposed action will formally establish the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean - likely on a permanent basis.

China is said to have a strategic goal of securing the oil-import route from the Middle East to China's east coast - of which this action is part and parcel of.

Article (http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T100116003101.htm)

China's blue water navy just keeps growing and growing...

[Americano]

Apparently, the Japanese have just ended their contribution to the allied forces serving anti-piracy patrols off Somalia (due to domestic politics). Up until now, the Japanese Maritime services have been providing long-distance re-fueling services for the assembled (multi-national) fleet.

In a move sure to ruffle some feathers in Tokyo, New Delhi and Washington, China has officially offered to step in and take over responsibility for this re-fueling function.

It doesn't sound like much - unless you realize the full implications of this proposed action will formally establish the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean - likely on a permanent basis.

China is said to have a strategic goal of securing the oil-import route from the Middle East to China's east coast - of which this action is part and parcel of.

Article (http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T100116003101.htm)

China's blue water navy just keeps growing and growing...

As it should when considering China's rapidly expanded foreign interests and foreign capital investments. China's global participation still seems economically motivated with no effort to spread ideology or gain territory. Do you think that will change?

[Zarquon]

As it should when considering China's rapidly expanded foreign interests and foreign capital investments. China's global participation still seems economically motivated with no effort to spread ideology or gain territory. Do you think that will change?
The only ideology they are currently pursuing, using rather, is Chinese Nationalism (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Nationalism#Modern_times); and will continue more or less to do what is in 'the interest of the Chinese People' (read:whatever maintains the power of the Communist Party Of China). Since their govt is more or less illegitimate, they have to deliver around 8% annual economic growth and employment opportunities for its burgeoning college and high-school graduates, along with the traditional vocational school grads and unschooled labor, while improving govt services and reducing their massive corruption and abuse of power at the provincial and rural level.
They will also have to start cleaning up their environment(polls (http://www.csrwire.com/press/press_release/27607-Water-Pollution-Scarcity-Top-China-s-Environmental-Challenges-Says-New-Circle-of-Blue-GlobeScan-Global-Public-Opinion-Survey) suggest that many Chinese view the issue as neglected and of grave concern) and shift from cheap manufacturing to value-added services and high tech to increase prosperity.
As such, I expect no ideological change in PRC foreign policy, only that motivated by economic and security contingencies.

[Americano]

The only ideology they are currently pursuing, using rather, is Chinese Nationalism (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Nationalism#Modern_times); and will continue more or less to do what is in 'the interest of the Chinese People' (read:whatever maintains the power of the Communist Party Of China). Since their govt is more or less illegitimate, they have to deliver around 8% annual economic growth and employment opportunities for its burgeoning college and high-school graduates, along with the traditional vocational school grads and unschooled labor, while improving govt services and reducing their massive corruption and abuse of power at the provincial and rural level.
They will also have to start cleaning up their environment(polls (http://www.csrwire.com/press/press_release/27607-Water-Pollution-Scarcity-Top-China-s-Environmental-Challenges-Says-New-Circle-of-Blue-GlobeScan-Global-Public-Opinion-Survey) suggest that many Chinese view the issue as neglected and of grave concern) and shift from cheap manufacturing to value-added services and high tech to increase prosperity.
As such, I expect no ideological change in PRC foreign policy, only that motivated by economic and security contingencies.

Sounds like the US and most other countries. I wish we had China's economic growth rate.

[Michael]

I wish we had China's economic growth rate.
I think that's physically impossible due to the long-standing trend of the average return on capital being a 'downward slope'. As time goes on, the rate of return on capital will fall as the market becomes saturated with useless stuff no one wants or needs. That's the definition of a 'mature' market.

You just can't get double-digit returns on capital investments in mature markets. That's only possible in economies that are immature (like China or India).

Once those opportunities run out, the world will probably start getting ugly. :shrug:

[Americano]

I think that's physically impossible due to the long-standing trend of the average return on capital being a 'downward slope'. As time goes on, the rate of return on capital will fall as the market becomes saturated with useless stuff no one wants or needs.

You just can't get double-digit returns on capital investments in mature markets. That's only possible in economies that are immature (like China or India).

I know. The US offers little attraction for capital, primarily due to its relatively low profit margins and subsequent ROI. That's common in debtor nation service economies. I do miss those 20%+ ROIs.

[Michael]

I know. The US offers little attraction for capital, primarily due to its relatively low profit margins and subsequent ROI. That's common in debtor nation service economies. I do miss those 20%+ ROIs.
That would help carry the service charges on that trillion dollar deficit (and multi-trillion dollar national debt). But alas, those 20%+ ROIs are long gone from the US market.

Just wait till they are gone from the Chinese and Indian markets too! :eek:

That's when the shit will really hit the proverbial fan. Capital (as a socio-political system) can't function without a fat ROI and endless annual increases in GDP growth.

Though, by that time, China will likely have a really big navy! :D

[Americano]

That would help carry the service charges on that trillion dollar deficit (and multi-trillion dollar national debt). But alas, those 20%+ ROIs are long gone from the US market.

Just wait till they are gone from the Chinese and Indian markets too! :eek:

That's when the shit will really hit the proverbial fan. Capital (as a socio-political system) can't function without a fat ROI and endless annual increases in GDP growth.

Though, by that time, China will likely have a really big navy! :D

That it will.