Israeli Election Results

[Michael]

Well, it sure looks like the Israelis have voted for the return of GW Bush.

The result is a hung parliament with a heavy bias towards the extreme rightwing.

This is not pretty at all. Pretty much guarentees that any Obama initiative in this region is going to be a non-starter.

[Dominick]

Well, it's not that bad, is it. Kadima is still the biggest and doesn't necessarily have to ally with Likud, let alone with Yisrael Beiteinu *. I'm actually baffled when commentators declare the party that progressed the most as the winner of an election. That's not important. Only the final seats matter. It makes no difference whether Likud came from 12 seats, from 54 or from zero. All that matters is that they have 27 now.

Nevertheless, once again, the fatal and self-destructive weakness of democracy is illustrated. Yisrael Beitenu, if the others wouldn't just ignore them, might call the shots with some 12% of the votes. Extremist parties that are in that position have a very disproportionate influence.

And something else, does it really matter whether it's Likud or Kadima ? Both will make war on Gaza, and continue the occupation of the Westbank. That's not going to change. Only Yisrael Beitenu would make a real difference, a horrible difference which has the capacity of triggering a full-scale war in the region. And that in turn....

* Ironic, isn't it, to see an extreme right, racist and xenophobic party having success in Israel of all places. Just shows that Israelis/Jews are as gullible as the next guy. All claims of either inferiority or superiority should be laid aside with this result. The result is in fact almost identical to that of Flanders.

[Michael]

Nevertheless, once again, the fatal and self-destructive weakness of democracy is illustrated. Yisrael Beitenu, if the others wouldn't just ignore them, might call the shots with some 12% of the votes. Extremist parties that are in that position have a very disproportionate influence.
I disagree. What you have here is good evidence that "proportional representation" sucks.

The flaw isn't democracy here, the flaw is the systemic advantage given to extremist parties from the 'proportional' system that panders to minority/extremist parties.

And something else, does it really matter whether it's Likud or Kadima ? Both will make war on Gaza, and continue the occupation of the Westbank. That's not going to change. Only Yisrael Beitenu would make a real difference, a horrible difference which has the capacity of triggering a full-scale war in the region. And that in turn....
Agreed. Official Israeli policy on Palestine is atrocious (and dispicable) regardless of which party is in power. Been that way for decades.

* Ironic, isn't it, to see an extreme right, racist and xenophobic party having success in Israel of all places. Just shows that Israelis/Jews are as gullible as the next guy. All claims of either inferiority or superiority should be laid aside with this result. The result is in fact almost identical to that of Flanders.
I lost my ability to be shocked by racism/xenophobia from Israel several years ago when I first heard Israeli politicians refer to "Greater Israel". These Israeli politicians are actually talking about leibenstraum for Jews! :eek:

That pulled me off the fence - I used to be fairly neutral on the Israel-Palestine issue, but once I heard that expression, my neutrality went out the window. I now perceive Israel as the aggressor party (since 1981).

[Dominick]

I disagree. What you have here is good evidence that "proportional representation" sucks.

The flaw isn't democracy here, the flaw is the systemic advantage given to extremist parties from the 'proportional' system that panders to minority/extremist parties.
If the extremists are inside a bigger party, it's the same story. Take the fundamentalist anti-abortion lobby in the USA for instance. Their influence is also disproportional.
Déjà vu again :eek:


I lost my ability to be shocked by racism/xenophobia from Israel several years ago when I first heard Israeli politicians refer to "Greater Israel". These Israeli politicians are actually talking about leibenstraum for Jews! :eek:
Why not ? Israelis/Jews are no better or worse than anyone else. There's voices in Flanders, Holland, Germany, Russia, etc. etc. with the same desire. No one group is immune for the extreme right virus.


That pulled me off the fence - I used to be fairly neutral on the Israel-Palestine issue, but once I heard that expression, my neutrality went out the window. I now perceive Israel as the aggressor party (since 1981).
I'm still neutral. What can one expect in a setting where everyone, including Fatah, Hamas, PLO, and Israeli politicians all have built their career and reputation on gorilla chest-thumping. They all need to continue to thump not to lose their credibility.
Nor do I think it's meaningful to even point to anyone as the agressor. This can be said to be a 2,500 year old conflict. I consider the whole thing to be insoluble.

[Michael]

If the extremists are inside a bigger party, it's the same story. Take the fundamentalist anti-abortion lobby in the USA for instance. Their influence is also disproportional.
Déjà vu again :eek:
Abortion is almost entirely legal in the USA.

Ergo, your point here shows the 'successful' mediating influence of 'big-tent' centerist parties.

If the US Congress was filled by "proportional representation", I'm certain abortion would be outlawed in the USA - that 25% hardcore faction would be kingmakers for sure with dedicated voting discipline.

Why not ? Israelis/Jews are no better or worse than anyone else. There's voices in Flanders, Holland, Germany, Russia, etc. etc. with the same desire. No one group is immune for the extreme right virus.
True.

I just think the Jews ought to remember how badly they suffered when someone else desired leibenstraum. Demanding leibenstraum is evil and the Jews ought to know this more than anyone!

I'm still neutral. What can one expect in a setting where everyone, including Fatah, Hamas, PLO, and Israeli politicians all have built their career and reputation on gorilla chest-thumping. They all need to continue to thump not to lose their credibility.
Yes, this is true. There is more than enough blame, guilt and failure on both sides.

My lack of neutrality (as a westerner) is more an unwillingness to be an Israeli apologist. In North America, Israel commands 90% support - so to be even 'lukewarm' in support of Israel is to be considered radically leftwing on the issue. In Europe, the situation of general political favor is probably reversed.

Nor do I think it's meaningful to even point to anyone as the agressor. This can be said to be a 2,500 year old conflict. I consider the whole thing to be insoluble.
I most certainly disagree that this is a 2,500 year old conflict! That's just propaganda used to defend the status quo 'mess'.

The Jews and the Muslims have had extremely good relations for well over a thousand years of living side-by-side in the Middle East (and Muslim Spain).

Deterioration in Jewish-Muslim relations in the Middle East begins in the last quarter of the 19th century and accelerates in the 1930s and 1940s to the present 'red-hot' ugliness that it is today. The co-relation with period highpoints of western poli-social-scientific interest in eugenics is noted.

[Dominick]

Abortion is almost entirely legal in the USA.

Ergo, your point here shows the 'successful' mediating influence of 'big-tent' centerist parties.

If the US Congress was filled by "proportional representation", I'm certain abortion would be outlawed in the USA - that 25% hardcore faction would be kingmakers for sure with dedicated voting discipline.

The mere fact that there are places where it is outlawed (which is a fundamentalist issue if there is one) demonstrates that extremists have succesfully influenced the political process.


I just think the Jews ought to remember how badly they suffered when someone else desired leibenstraum. Demanding leibenstraum is evil and the Jews ought to know this more than anyone!
Nobody learns from history. In a decade or two, parts of Europe will be fascist again (you heard it here first !). Why would the Jews or Isrealis be an exception? The Flemish e.g. suffered from Nazi occupation too and yet are walking right into the same trap again with eyes and ears wide open.


In Europe, the situation of general political favor is probably reversed.
That's rather complex. I'd say it's about 50-50 amongst those that chose sides but the group that has sympathy for both is probably larger than the partisans combined. The real funny group is the extreme right which can't seem to make up their mind as to whom to hate the most. They're actually fighting over that :rofl:


I most certainly disagree that this is a 2,500 year old conflict! That's just propaganda used to defend the status quo 'mess'.
You should know better than to put me down as a propaganda victim :)


The Jews and the Muslims have had extremely good relations for well over a thousand years of living side-by-side in the Middle East (and Muslim Spain).

Deterioration in Jewish-Muslim relations in the Middle East begins in the last quarter of the 19th century and accelerates in the 1930s and 1940s to the present 'red-hot' ugliness that it is today. The co-relation with period highpoints of western poli-social-scientific interest in eugenics is noted.
That's entirely true but I was thinking of the specific region rather than the Islam-Jewry issue (which couldn't be older than 1400 years anyway). There's the whole Crusade era to consider too, the Roman occupation, the British occupation, and so on. Having a holy place there common to the three main revelationary religions is always going to be a powder keg.

Edit, almost forgot the actual topic. It looks like Israel's cabinet formation will be as reminiscent of Flanders as their election was.

[Dominick]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7901486.stm

Phase one of "The shit is going to hit the fan bigtime" is in order. It still beats me why the second largest party would be asked to form a government. That once again proves that the position of a single individual -Shimon Peres- outweighs the vote of any number of electors. So much for the true nature of demos-cracy. (demos meaning "people").

When some counties in France achieved a majority extreme right council, there wasn't much to worry about. They couldn't do all that much harm acting locally and they would have to prove their ability to govern. Needless to say they all screwed up bigtime and since then the extreme right in France has stopped growing and indeed shrunk somewhat. Most importantly, their 'clean' image was shattered which was enough to deter the most naive voters.

But in Israel and on the governmental level, the allowance for error is much, much smaller. How much more hardline can one get if destroying the entire infrastructure of the Gaza strip isn't enough (Much of it financed with EU-money by the way) ?. What measures can the bouncer from Yisrael Beiteinu take to satisfy the bloodthirst of his electors ? Of course, the more extreme these measures are ging to be, the more extreme the retaliation will once again be.

The media will love this though. More wars, more attacks, more corpses of children. Ratings ! Advertising income ! Yoohoo !

[Michael]

The mere fact that there are places where it is outlawed (which is a fundamentalist issue if there is one) demonstrates that extremists have succesfully influenced the political process.
When the extremists (in this case) are such a very large minority - and tend to be concentrated geographically (ie. the 'Bible Belt') then it is a logical result - not a failure of big tent party centerism. Indeed, I've already shown the argument that this extremism is present in smaller effect due to the 'big-tent' party centerism.

Big tent party centerism mitigates and tends to moderate extremism. It is not a magic wand to wipe it away.

My argument is that proportional representation systems tend to magnify and reward extremism. Belgium and Israel are good examples of this.

Nobody learns from history. In a decade or two, parts of Europe will be fascist again (you heard it here first !). Why would the Jews or Isrealis be an exception? The Flemish e.g. suffered from Nazi occupation too and yet are walking right into the same trap again with eyes and ears wide open.
Mind boggling.

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Indeed.

That's rather complex. I'd say it's about 50-50 amongst those that chose sides but the group that has sympathy for both is probably larger than the partisans combined. The real funny group is the extreme right which can't seem to make up their mind as to whom to hate the most. They're actually fighting over that :rofl:
Yes, the Euro-rightwing must have its knickers in a knot trying to figure out which they ought to hate more - Jews or Arabs. No sympathy.

You should know better than to put me down as a propaganda victim :)
And you should know better than to cite it in defense of an argument! :D

That's entirely true but I was thinking of the specific region rather than the Islam-Jewry issue (which couldn't be older than 1400 years anyway). There's the whole Crusade era to consider too, the Roman occupation, the British occupation, and so on. Having a holy place there common to the three main revelationary religions is always going to be a powder keg.
1. The Roman occupation predates Islam by many centuries. I don't see how that can be relevant to Jewish-Islam relations.

2. During the era of the Crusades, the Jews were steadfast allies of the Muslims. Btw, Christian Crusaders did not bother to distinguish between Jews and Muslims when they were into a good massacre. And the Muslims ultimately 'won' the battles of the Crusades.

As for the British occupation, again, I don't see the specific relevance of that to Jewish-Muslim relations. British occupation is likely to have pissed off both groups equally.

[Michael]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7901486.stm

Phase one of "The shit is going to hit the fan bigtime" is in order. It still beats me why the second largest party would be asked to form a government. That once again proves that the position of a single individual -Shimon Peres- outweighs the vote of any number of electors. So much for the true nature of demos-cracy. (demos meaning "people").
This is totally corrupt.

It is a foundational principle of parliamentary systems that the party that wins the largest number of seats is offered the opportunity to rule the House. It is only upon the demonstrated failure of the largest party to achieve the confidence of the House that the second largest party is offered the opportunity to form a coalition that may claim the confidence of the House.

When some counties in France achieved a majority extreme right council, there wasn't much to worry about. They couldn't do all that much harm acting locally and they would have to prove their ability to govern. Needless to say they all screwed up bigtime and since then the extreme right in France has stopped growing and indeed shrunk somewhat. Most importantly, their 'clean' image was shattered which was enough to deter the most naive voters.
An excellent and often overlooked point.

The best way to discredit the rightwing is to let them rule. They almost always do such a horrific job of it that they provide the argument to keep themselves out of power for decades thereafter.

Hoover and GW Bush are good American examples.

But in Israel and on the governmental level, the allowance for error is much, much smaller. How much more hardline can one get if destroying the entire infrastructure of the Gaza strip isn't enough (Much of it financed with EU-money by the way) ?. What measures can the bouncer from Yisrael Beiteinu take to satisfy the bloodthirst of his electors ? Of course, the more extreme these measures are ging to be, the more extreme the retaliation will once again be.
Double irony - EU taxpayers finance the building of Gaza and US taxpayers finance the destruction.

Interesting game the Palestinians and Israelis are playing there. Such games are always easier when someone else ponies up the cash.

The media will love this though. More wars, more attacks, more corpses of children. Ratings ! Advertising income ! Yoohoo !
I'm afraid this is too true. The media are the real merchants of death. They are the ones that seek to profit from it. One can always count on the mass media to fan the flames of any potential dispute.