Michael
Jan 11th 2009, 11:41 AM
The president's presumed power during his first months in office flows from his high approval ratings. But is presidential popularity at its peak during the first months of a new administration? The answer is absolutely yes. The late Barbara Hinckley, a political scientist at New York University and Purdue University, charted the approval ratings of presidents as measured by opinion polls from Truman to Clinton. She found their arcs so similar she was able to create a generic graph illustrating what she called "the decay curve."
Source (http://www.miller-mccune.com/article/congratulations-mr-president-here-s-your-decay-curve)
Check out the attached chart (lifted from the article). It shows the general 'approval' rate pattern one can expect. I suppose GW Bush data might skew the data if/when it gets updated!
I find it interesting the sheer predictablity of it. It is amazing the way the whole country gets all excited about a 'new President' at the beginning and then gets disappointed over time. Then the President has to really work at raising popularity just enough for re-election purposes, then the cycle repeats for second terms (except with deeper drops).
Source (http://www.miller-mccune.com/article/congratulations-mr-president-here-s-your-decay-curve)
Check out the attached chart (lifted from the article). It shows the general 'approval' rate pattern one can expect. I suppose GW Bush data might skew the data if/when it gets updated!
I find it interesting the sheer predictablity of it. It is amazing the way the whole country gets all excited about a 'new President' at the beginning and then gets disappointed over time. Then the President has to really work at raising popularity just enough for re-election purposes, then the cycle repeats for second terms (except with deeper drops).