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MeMyselfAndI
Jul 25th 2011, 04:19 PM
According to: http://dniester.ru/content/belkovski...rov-vseya-rusi (http://dniester.ru/content/belkovskii-nuzhen-li-nam-kadyrov-vseya-rusi)
60% of Russian citizens want to cut off Chechnya and the rest of Northern Caucasus from the Federation. They support, in general, the nationalists' plan: The nationalists say Russia has sacrificed already as amny as 30,000 men there, trying to keep order, since the early 90s, and there is no reason to continue this futile task. Instead, they say, we should create a high-security border on the Terek river, maybe build a wall, like Israel, heavily arm Cossack communities there, and have them (Cossacks) fight any mountain people that try to cross, like in the old times http://www.military-quotes.com/forum/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif Oh, and almost all people of North Caucasian descent living in other areas of Russia, except those completely absorbed into local culture, are to be deported home.

Cossack leaders support this too. They have demanded free access to weapons for ALL Cossacks (not just members of governemnt-sanctioned militias) for years. They say, 'give us free guns, and we are prepared to secure a border zone along Terek'.

But, there are many problems I see with this. First, within Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, there are thousands of men who have fought, bravely, for Russia, for their Republics to remain a part of the Federation, risked their lives. Many more have given their lives for this goal. Policemen, troops, Specnaz fighters. And their families. Loyal Russian citizens. If those Republics are seceded from Russia, and, essentially, handed over to the Wakhabits, what will happen to those people? We, as a country, I believe, owe them better.

Than, there is the little matter of Ossetia. Ossetians are Orthodox Christian. Russia, to them, is home. And Cossacks, to them (and vise versa) are brothers. Among Terek Cossacks, 1 in 3 has Ossetian blood. Ossetia forms a relatively narrow corridor between Muslim Dagestan, Chechnya and Ingushetia on one side and Muslim Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachaevo-Cherkesia on the other. In the 90s, Ossetians and Cossacks fought to the death against Chechens and Ingush over a tiny piece of land called Prigorodny District, today part of Ossetia. If we secede North Caucasus, and the Islamists take power on both sides of Ossetia, they (Islamists) will attack the Ossetians. The Cossacks will be drawn into it: Terek Army, will rise immedeately to the Ossetians aid, and Don and Kuban armies would be obliged to, then, fight alongside them as their fellow Cossacks. This would be a ethno-religious war involving several million people, one that will reduce most of that region to ruins. But, no need even for that. In Dagestan, which has both Sunni and Shiite Muslims, with the Sunnis in a narrow majority (around 60%), a Sunni-Shiite conflict is already in the works. Already Shiite leaders are complaining that the (mostly Sunni) spiritual leadership in the republic is preventing their people from entering mosques. There have already been violent clashes in rural areas. If Russian security presense went away, they'd start cutting each other in pieces, possibly with foreign players entering (perhaps Iran and Azerbaijan helping the Shiites, and the Arabs and, maybe, Turks, on the Sunni side).

Howerver it would turn out, without Russian military and security forces there, North Caucasus would quickly turn into another Waziristan, or Somalia, a lawless region, haven to terrorist organizations, criminal networks, etc.

But, what do you guys think? Is a peaceful separation of North Caucasus from Russia possible, desirable, and also, I would ask, how do you think it would affect the West?

Donkey
Jul 25th 2011, 04:53 PM
Depends on how the populations of those territories feel.

MeMyselfAndI
Jul 25th 2011, 05:03 PM
Depends on how the populations of those territories feel.

The populations are divided. Some symphasize with separatists. Some are Islamist fundamentalists. Some, as I descirbed above, are loyal to Russia. And the upper classes live, basically, off Russian money, tens, maybe hundreds, of millions of rubles of aid and allowances flowing into North Caucasus every year. They don't want to break away: no Federation - no money :)

Donkey
Jul 25th 2011, 05:11 PM
Put it to a vote!

MeMyselfAndI
Jul 25th 2011, 05:17 PM
Put it to a vote!

In a perfect world, they should and would.

Michael
Jul 25th 2011, 09:29 PM
I'm not overly familiar with the geography and politics of south-western Russia (not unlike the Balkans) as it is rather long and complicated with impossible names for an English tongue.

That being said, from what I do know of the issue, it sounds like a 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' type of situation - not unlike Canada with Quebec separatism. Religion and history always complicates things and makes regular political issues turn emotionally 'hot'.

Anyway, I will assert that most large/modern nation-states will not voluntarily give up territory and let it walk away. Letting some long-distance colony/province become independent is very different than letting a piece break off from the home country. Even if it seems like a 'good' public policy in this particular case (which I don't know), you have to recognize the legal precedent that becomes established - making it politically/rationally difficult to oppose any subsequent separatist movements.

On this basis, I cannot believe it be at all likely that Russia would willing give up such territory and let it walk away freely - especially such strategically important territory as the Caucus and south-central Asia.

As for the official western military view, I think things have changed a bit since the Bush White House years when America sought to have Georgia join NATO. The rest of NATO was adamantly opposed at that time and forced the US to drop it. I can't see Western European governments changing their minds any time soon on this issue. Similarly, I can't see NATO being willing to either support or fight for Georgia at all and the US is in no position to be going it alone in support of Georgia - meaning war with Russia. That's just silly. That being said, the CIA would certainly 'covertly' support Georgia with money and weapons (they've been doing it for a while now) - old habits die hard and much of the present top brass in the US establishment grew up and went to school with USSR as the ultimate 'cold war' enemy.

And I also think MM&I makes an excellent point about the potential political turbulence in the region post-separation. On this basis, I'd expect western military-political opinion to quietly recognize Russia's interest in the 'near abroad' and seek to keep order rather than peace.

Edited to add: I suppose it is obvious from my post that I consider a peaceful separation to be extremly unlikely and didn't even bother to address that possibility.

NickKIELCEPoland
Jul 26th 2011, 09:06 AM
I agree with Donkey.
Have a vote, and let the people decide.

Non Sequitur
Jul 26th 2011, 04:34 PM
I always thought the issue was that region had something to do with oil and therefore there was no chance on God's green earth the Russian government was going to let it go. I could be wrong about that though.

Thevoice
Jul 27th 2011, 07:37 PM
What I will write here, you won't read it anywhere else. I can say that I know everything that happens in this region because I'm originally from there.
I apologize for my English, actually I'm Dutch speaking.

Everything happening in the Caucasus is due to misunderstanding between Kremlin and the authorities in these republics. Kremlin never had interest for the population in the Caucasus, it wants their natural resources (Actually not only Russia but also our countries in the West supporting by the US)
Why did Russia begin the war in Chechnya? Oups, there were 2 wars ! Around 200.000 people dead. (Were they all terrorists?) Actually there's too much oil in Chechnya. Before the war started, 95% of oil extraction was transported to Moscow, only 5% was left for the republic. Would you allow that? No one would ! Chechens tried and died. First of all, the people with guns, were defenders of their nation when the enemy came ! They weren't terrorists as it was said.
I said enough about Chechnya.

Regarding to Prigorodnij district, it was Ingushetia's territory before 1992. In 1992, Ingushs were deported from their district and they suffered a genocide. (Chechens and Ingushs were deported also in 1944 in the Central Asia by Stalin) Ossets with the help of Russian killed the Ingushs, let the pigs eat the dead people, raped young women...No one has forgotten !
Because Progorodny district form more than the half of the North Ossetia territory and they wanted to clean it from the Ingushs. They succeeded !

Today, Kremlin appointed his dog, Kadyrov. The population hates him, that's why he drives with 50 cars around him. You probably didn't know that !
Why did Kremlin abolished the elections in all republics? Because it's easier to appoint someone !

I don't see any solution ! Russia won't let the Caucasus separate itself !
Old people say this and this is true: "Russia wants the Caucasus without Caucasians !

MeMyselfAndI
Jul 27th 2011, 08:02 PM
What I will write here, you won't read it anywhere else. I can say that I know everything that happens in this region because I'm originally from there.
I apologize for my English, actually I'm Dutch speaking.

Everything happening in the Caucasus is due to misunderstanding between Kremlin and the authorities in these republics. Kremlin never had interest for the population in the Caucasus, it wants their natural resources (Actually not only Russia but also our countries in the West supporting by the US)
Why did Russia begin the war in Chechnya? Oups, there were 2 wars ! Around 200.000 people dead. (Were they all terrorists?) Actually there's too much oil in Chechnya. Before the war started, 95% of oil extraction was transported to Moscow, only 5% was left for the republic. Would you allow that? No one would ! Chechens tried and died. First of all, the people with guns, were defenders of their nation when the enemy came ! They weren't terrorists as it was said.
I said enough about Chechnya.

Regarding to Prigorodnij district, it was Ingushetia's territory before 1992. In 1992, Ingushs were deported from their district and they suffered a genocide. (Chechens and Ingushs were deported also in 1944 in the Central Asia by Stalin) Ossets with the help of Russian killed the Ingushs, let the pigs eat the dead people, raped young women...No one has forgotten !
Because Progorodny district form more than the half of the North Ossetia territory and they wanted to clean it from the Ingushs. They succeeded !

Today, Kremlin appointed his dog, Kadyrov. The population hates him, that's why he drives with 50 cars around him. You probably didn't know that !
Why did Kremlin abolished the elections in all republics? Because it's easier to appoint someone !

I don't see any solution ! Russia won't let the Caucasus separate itself !
Old people say this and this is true: "Russia wants the Caucasus without Caucasians !

That is the truth, basically. I know Russia messed that region up over the years. That is why I don't know how this will ever be resolved. Russians will not apologise to Caucasus. The hatred for Caucasians is strong here, remember the riots in December.

rocky.dwf
Jul 28th 2011, 06:54 AM
1. The Caucasus is said to be rich in oil, gas and untapped minerals. Vital oil/gas pipelines of the region pass through this. The location itself is strategic and vital for Russia's security. Traditionally this region has provided good soldiers and energetic manpower to Russian rulers - be they the Czars or the Communists.

2. But all that is overtaken by the intensity of the hatred for Russians that have grown over the centuries.

3. The other factor is demography. The Muslims (Cossack, Mongols, Tartars) living in this region and elsewhere in Russia are growing in numbers fast. They say, soon the Muslims would dominate Russia. In the armed forces, there is a fear they may already be the largest nationalist component.

4. Russia has never shown a fascination to solve issues rationally/peacefully. The question of doing that here is remote. What is more likely to happen is that these people of the Caucasus - the Mongols,Tartars, Cossack, may re-conquer Russia and rule from Moscow.