Kaliningrad Oblast--the future

[O'Sullivan Bere]

For those who aren't aware of what the Kaliningrad Oblast is and its full background, I'll provide the wiki link for the purpose of better understanding the topic and the many current internal and external complex issues concerning it. It's currently a Russian state that was formed from a culturally and strategically important portion of former East Prussia that was taken from Germany and given to the former Soviet Union at the end of WWII. Upon acquisition, all the German topographical names were changed to Russian ones and the German population was expelled and replaced with mostly Russians.

Kaliningrad Oblast - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningrad_Oblast)

Given the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the 90s, it is now geographically very cut off from the main portion of Russia. It is also surrounded by Lithuania and Poland that are now EU members whilst Russia is not. The following map will illustrate the extent of the geographical situation:

http://www.lfs.lt/img/content/en_location_1.jpg

The geographic factors have become further enlarged, strained and entangled considering Poland and Lithuania have also:

1) joined NATO (as recently witnessed with the Russian response stating it will put missiles in the oblast to counter the US-led plan to construct a missile defence shield in central Europe) and,

2) entered the Schengen Zone. Here is information about the Schengen Zone for those who are unaware what it is:

Schengen Agreement - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Agreement)

What do you all think might or will be future developments concerning the oblast? I'd like to get some ideas out there for discussion because there are plenty of them that I believe make for a good discussion. For example, what kinds of agreements, positions, outreaches, compromises, guardings, etc, if any, do you feel should be maintained and/or reached relating to the above issues or any others as they relate to the oblast?

[Michael]

What do you all think might or will be future developments concerning the oblast? I'd like to get some ideas out there for discussion because there are plenty of them that I believe make for a good discussion. For example, what kinds of agreements, positions, outreaches, compromises, guardings, etc, if any, do you feel should be maintained and/or reached relating to the above issues or any others as they relate to the oblast?
Very interesting topic...

And that is a major tricky problem there - I see serious immigration/border issues as well as the obvious security issue. Indeed, the oblast looks almost like a reverse of Cold War era 'West Berlin'. A major Russian economic and military outpost, totally enclosed and surrounded by NATO/EU countries. Now this presents some obvious problems and opportunities.

One can certainly expect that the Russians, just like in the old East-West Berlin, will use this for maximum political and military-intelligence advantage. The Russians are not fools and they've never 'not used' a potential political weapon if it is available.

But overall, I think this the oblast does present a long-term opportunity for the engagement of Russia with Europe. Russia has always had a 'love-hate' relationship with Europe, so anything that can draw Russia into Europe is probably a good thing. Just the minutae of dealing with petty rules for the borders will force Russia to meet with and deal with the EU (and NATO) on a regular and normative basis. This is good for relationship building.

Now it is certain that Russia will play political games and use the place as a pipeline for spies and criminal networks, but this is probably a small price to pay for taking an 'open' (or benign) approach to the oblast. I respectfully submit, that Russia's political games playing and legendary spy network failed to serve the USSR all that well and didn't ultimately pose a critical danger to the western nations and isn't likely to start doing so now that Russia is somewhat less militarily and economically powerful than the USSR was in its heyday.

I guess what I'm really saying here is that the EU and NATO ought to look at the oblast as an opportunity for increasing the amount of routine engagement with Russia. Who knows, maybe Russia might want to join the EU twenty-five years down the road. Russia needs to be engaged for the safety and security of Europe. The more the relationships with Russia can be 'normalized' the better it is for Russia and the EU in the long run.

[O'Sullivan Bere]

Very interesting topic...

And that is a major tricky problem there - I see serious immigration/border issues as well as the obvious security issue. Indeed, the oblast looks almost like a reverse of Cold War era 'West Berlin'. A major Russian economic and military outpost, totally enclosed and surrounded by NATO/EU countries. Now this presents some obvious problems and opportunities.

The issue of travel is actually one of the current sticky wickets for the EU and/or Schengen states, not just the Russians for their travel to and from the oblast.

The oblast is a distressed area by comparison due to long term neglect and poor development, the Soviet era economy and subsequent Russian struggles on it, the decline of the Soviet/Russian Navy and military as a source of local employment (its once main employer), its current geographic isolation from the Russian main body, etc. It has had ongoing rampant problems with AIDS epidemics, drugs and prostitution (including trafficking in both), smuggling, local unemployment, etc.

The EU has already been affected by drug and prostitution trafficking and other smuggling to and from the oblast. It has also been concerned about illegal migration from oblast residents and/or through the oblast from other parts of Russia.

My guess is that if the oblast falls further behind whilst the other newly admitted EU nations in the region such as Poland and the Baltic States keep improving, these issues concerning the oblast will increase, so the topic of the thread will be of increasing importance.

One can certainly expect that the Russians, just like in the old East-West Berlin, will use this for maximum political and military-intelligence advantage. The Russians are not fools and they've never 'not used' a potential political weapon if it is available.Certainly. It gives them an enclave right inside the EU, NATO and Schengen for these purposes.


But overall, I think this the oblast does present a long-term opportunity for the engagement of Russia with Europe. Russia has always had a 'love-hate' relationship with Europe, so anything that can draw Russia into Europe is probably a good thing. Just the minutae of dealing with petty rules for the borders will force Russia to meet with and deal with the EU (and NATO) on a regular and normative basis. This is good for relationship building.

Now it is certain that Russia will play political games and use the place as a pipeline for spies and criminal networks, but this is probably a small price to pay for taking an 'open' (or benign) approach to the oblast. I respectfully submit, that Russia's political games playing and legendary spy network failed to serve the USSR all that well and didn't ultimately pose a critical danger to the western nations and isn't likely to start doing so now that Russia is somewhat less militarily and economically powerful than the USSR was in its heyday.

I guess what I'm really saying here is that the EU and NATO ought to look at the oblast as an opportunity for increasing the amount of routine engagement with Russia. Who knows, maybe Russia might want to join the EU twenty-five years down the road. Russia needs to be engaged for the safety and security of Europe. The more the relationships with Russia can be 'normalized' the better it is for Russia and the EU in the long run.I also agree that its spy network really didn't help it in the long run. After all, look at how the Soviet Union and now the Russian military turned out. More damage was often done by American and other NATO citizens hired by the Russians instead (like the Walker spy group for example, which is even linked to having led to the USS Pueblo incident that caused further damage, amongst their own direct actions).

I think it is definitely in the EU and others affected by the oblast to help improve it (and better so in partnerships) given the concerns I raised in the first portion of this reply. The Russians know this too, and it gives them return leverage. The tricky stuff will always be there, though, given the Russians own the oblast and can use any and all issues of the scenarios for its benefit in a number of ways depending on the circumstances, some of which may be positive and even mutually beneficial or the opposite (extortionist, intimidating, etc). When it is negative, that may require countermeasures that may cause further setbacks and problems.

[Michael]

Do you have any ideas OSB about how the EU should address the oblast? Its obvious that it is a problem and likely to be an ongoing one.

Any particular issue here that you consider critical for the EU?

For example, doesn't the tiny principality of Andorra pose similar 'border problems' from an enclave outside of the EU and the Schengen Agreement?