Racism or genuine fears?

[MeMyselfAndI]

I have already written here about the ongoing problems in Northern Caucasus, the terrorism, organized crime, land conflicts, poverty, unemployment. Much of it, as I had said, stems from increasingly severe overcrowding in Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, who have little land but fast growing populations, with high birthrates (and rising from 14.2/1000 people in Ingushetia in 2004 to 18.6 in 2008, for example, compared to national average of 12.1 for that year; around 20.3 now compared to 13 nationally. Chechnya is at 28/1000 same for last 7 years, was at 25 before. Dagestan is 19.5, I think, up from 17.8 in '08) and low death rates. Kabardino-Balkaria, where their rates went up from 13.5 in '08 to around 16 now will probably face similar issues in the future. Muslim women there increasingly take advantage of the maternity capital program, as they are poor many of them, and that $10,000 per second and next child is a lot of money there. Cossack women same too.

Well, a government commission looking at the issues in the region has now proposed a solution to relieve demographic pressures there. This includes relocating and resettling 500,000 North Caucasians to Central or Eastern/Siberian regions every couple years. That is where the issues start. And the protests. People there are saying: North Caucasians will bring their problems with them, crime, violence, Islamism (forgetting, conveniently, there there is plenty of crime and lawlessness already there to begin with, we are not exactly a 1st world society). Many, I suppose, fear demographic takeover, after all, majority of those who would be moved under this plan, would be young, fertile couples. And with their fertility rates, 3 to 4 children per woman, 500,000 could become over a million very quickly :D

I still think it is a good plan though. Frankly, we need to mix the population more, to get everyone to integrate and get along with each other. After all, how did Tatars become so Russified and entrenched in our society than by being scattered all over the country, forced to live among Russian people, adopt their language, culture, customs. Also, there is research of North Caucasian diasporas in Moscow that shows that the number of children in their families here is largely comparable to that of other Muskovite families: 1, 2, sometimes 3. I think the demographic threat is an exaggeration at best.

I think they should do this, it will resolve a lot of issues.

[Michael]

I think they should do this, it will resolve a lot of issues.

Yes, the 'Turkish Solution' is a relatively utilitarian policy that has the attraction of likely being the only policy that is likely to be functional.

(btw, the reference is to how the Ottoman Empire ruled its people of diverse religions and ethnicities - by scattering them around - it is one of the reasons that the Balkans are such a mess)

Given the Turkish example (and others) it is potentially dangerous in the long term if it isn't done well (see Balkans).

[MeMyselfAndI]

Yes, the 'Turkish Solution' is a relatively utilitarian policy that has the attraction of likely being the only policy that is likely to be functional.

(btw, the reference is to how the Ottoman Empire ruled its people of diverse religions and ethnicities - by scattering them around - it is one of the reasons that the Balkans are such a mess)

Given the Turkish example (and others) it is potentially dangerous in the long term if it isn't done well (see Balkans).

The idea is also that, by moving them to Central and Eastern regions, they will be out of reach of wahhabi preachers; and instead will come under the guidance of Tatar and Bashkir imams and muftis, who practice Sufi Islam, and teach pro-Russian, pro-Moscow, pro-Putin ways :D

Like I said, if they do this, and it works, that will be a major issue falling off all our backs.

[Michael]

The idea is also that, by moving them to Central and Eastern regions, they will be out of reach of wahhabi preachers; and instead will come under the guidance of Tatar and Bashkir imams and muftis, who practice Sufi Islam, and teach pro-Russian, pro-Moscow, pro-Putin ways :D

Like I said, if they do this, and it works, that will be a major issue falling off all our backs.

Yes, if it works. If it doesn't, Russia is just digging itself a deeper hole with a potential ethnic-nationalist backlash fifty years down the road that makes the present day problem seem benign. :shrug:

That being said, high birthrates are all about poverty and a lack of economic opportunity. If the move increases economic opportunities for these people, then it will likely be successful. If they are being forcefully herded around for political reasons, look out.