What now?

[MeMyselfAndI]

Russia and 2 Neighbors Form Economic Union

MOSCOW — The leaders of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan took their longest stride to date in linking their economies, forming a customs union that they say will soon evolve into a more ambitious common market, with Russia at its hub.

The agreement, for now, eases trade among the three large former Soviet economies without fully abolishing all duties and tariffs.

The three also stopped short of reaching a common position on membership in the World Trade Organization, something Russia as an individual country has been trying to negotiate since shortly after the Soviet collapse in 1991.

More at: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/06/business/global/06customs.html


Ok. Now we have a 'Customs Union'. Right away, I have three questions.

A. Just talking to people in regions neighboring Kazakhstan, such as Orenburg and Kurgan Oblasts, Astrakhan Oblast, etc., they have bigger issues with drugs and illegal immigration flowing across the border than your American Arizona. 13,000,000 people have illegally crossed into Russia from Central Asia, through the Kazakh border, in the last couple of years. And that's just an estimate. That mostly just counts Tajiks, Uzbeks, Kyrgyzs, and Kazakhs who come, but they come to the cities and try to find work in contrustion and usch areas, so they are more or less visible and it is easy to count them. However, there are also large groups of Uighurs making their way through Kazakhstan to the Siberian regions. They usually settle in the country-side, majority of them in Buryatia, or in Orenburg Oblast. In Orenburg, because of their facial features and their Sunni Islam, most people simply take them for Kazakhs, of whom there are plenty there, so we have no idea how many there really are. Some say as many as 50,000 Uighur families living in Russia now. USSR only had 800 Uighurs, according to government documents. Now that the border is, basically, open, it will not get better, only worse. There are maybe 100,000 ethnic Russians in Kyrgyzstan who wish to move to Russia. If the Kazakhs let them through, and they come, what will we do with all those people? And drug gangs too. Just recently, near Kurgan, a Cossack border patrol unit engaged an armed group of ethnic Uzbeks transporting heroine and hashish. Well, actually, it is not clear who fired on who first, they kind of run into each other. There was a gun battle for three hours, two Cossack were wounded, one of them, a Starshina (like Cossack Sergeant) Stepan Kaleda, very seriously, in the stomach; and 6 of the attackers killed. There was even a big scandal, because the Cossacks had, apparently, pursued the drug runners back into Kazakhstan territory.

B. This article mentions it already. Russia's farmers, particularly dairy farmers, will have a very hard time competing with Belarus producers. Even before the Union, Belorussian milk accounted for 80% of the market in Russia. Butter, sour cream, margarine, all similar numbers. Steel production maybe a little better, I have some hopes there. Still, this is not helpful. Lot of farms will go out of business. Lot of people will lose their jobs over this.

C. WTO. They want to join it together, 3 in 1. How this will work, a basically Soviet Belarus, oligarcho-capitalist Russia, and a Kazakhstan that is a mix of both of those, put together, is what I want to know.

Overall though, sounds nice. Three most powerful Republics working together. But, for now, I am skeptical.

[Michael]

Ok. Now we have a 'Customs Union'. Right away, I have three questions.
All I can say is that a formal customs union is always the first step in developing a political union.

Germany, USA and the EU were all created in that manner. The EU is of course a work in progress.

Secondly, I'd suggest that a Customs Union will help rather than hinder, any attempt to address the issue of illegal immigration or illegal drugs trade. In fact, strict border security controls in poor countries just tends to create a larger market for corruption.

As for the dairy farmers (and every other economic sector), it is a fundamental premise of classical economic theory that free trade is mutually beneficial to both parties. Sure Russian dairy farmers may suffer, but that is only because they are less efficient dairy farmers than the Belerusians. Cheaper and better quality dairy products from Belerus benefits all Russians. Russians can then spend the savings on other things rather than waste the money by giving it to inefficient Russian dairy farmers (who probably should not be dairy farmers).

This is a fundamental principle of market capitalism. Only the most efficient companies survive and the inefficient producers are forced out of business. In this case, forcing those inefficient Russian dairy farmers out of business is good for the Russian economy because - maybe - the Russian vodka industry actually needs more grain farmers, or maybe the Russian textile industry needs more cotton/flax farmers (but this is prevented because of all those inefficient Russian dairy farmers are hogging up all the good farmland that could be put to much better and more profitable production on other goods.

The theory of free trade is that the Russian dairy farmers may lose their jobs, but those rich Belerusian dairy farmers might want to buy more automatic cow-milking machines and those might come from some Russian company - and that means that some Russian cow-milking machine company will be expanding and hiring. When this happens, both Russia and Belsarus win - they both get to expand operations at what they are good at and make good profits. Losing a bunch of Russian dairy farms that were inefficient, low quality and very expensive may be a net benefit for Russia.

Fact is, over the last three hundred years, the two countries on the planet with the most open and free trade policies have been Britain and USA. These two countries have [historically] been the two largest and most powerful economies on the planet because of this.

As for WTO, I don't see any problems that are worse or more complicated than anywhere else on the globe. WTO is a mechanism for dealing with international trade disputes. Essentially it is just a world court for merchants and manufacturers. The type of government that rules any given member country is irrelevant. Both USA and China are full members, as is the EU (and all the individual European countries as well).

Overall though, sounds nice. Three most powerful Republics working together. But, for now, I am skeptical.

If you are a Russian nationalist who would like to see Russia succeed in the world, I should think you would welcome such good news. I certainly do.

[MeMyselfAndI]

All I can say is that a formal customs union is always the first step in developing a political union.

Germany, USA and the EU were all created in that manner. The EU is of course a work in progress.

Secondly, I'd suggest that a Customs Union will help rather than hinder, any attempt to address the issue of illegal immigration or illegal drugs trade. In fact, strict border security controls in poor countries just tends to create a larger market for corruption.

As for the dairy farmers (and every other economic sector), it is a fundamental premise of classical economic theory that free trade is mutually beneficial to both parties. Sure Russian dairy farmers may suffer, but that is only because they are less efficient dairy farmers than the Belerusians. Cheaper and better quality dairy products from Belerus benefits all Russians. Russians can then spend the savings on other things rather than waste the money by giving it to inefficient Russian dairy farmers (who probably should not be dairy farmers).

This is a fundamental principle of market capitalism. Only the most efficient companies survive and the inefficient producers are forced out of business. In this case, forcing those inefficient Russian dairy farmers out of business is good for the Russian economy because - maybe - the Russian vodka industry actually needs more grain farmers, or maybe the Russian textile industry needs more cotton/flax farmers (but this is prevented because of all those inefficient Russian dairy farmers are hogging up all the good farmland that could be put to much better and more profitable production on other goods.

The theory of free trade is that the Russian dairy farmers may lose their jobs, but those rich Belerusian dairy farmers might want to buy more automatic cow-milking machines and those might come from some Russian company - and that means that some Russian cow-milking machine company will be expanding and hiring. When this happens, both Russia and Belsarus win - they both get to expand operations at what they are good at and make good profits. Losing a bunch of Russian dairy farms that were inefficient, low quality and very expensive may be a net benefit for Russia.

Fact is, over the last three hundred years, the two countries on the planet with the most open and free trade policies have been Britain and USA. These two countries have [historically] been the two largest and most powerful economies on the planet because of this.

As for WTO, I don't see any problems that are worse or more complicated than anywhere else on the globe. WTO is a mechanism for dealing with international trade disputes. Essentially it is just a world court for merchants and manufacturers. The type of government that rules any given member country is irrelevant. Both USA and China are full members, as is the EU (and all the individual European countries as well).



If you are a Russian nationalist who would like to see Russia succeed in the world, I should think you would welcome such good news. I certainly do.

Agree with everything you say. Only, I am not nationalist, I am patriot.

They are Russian nationalists: http://s57.radikal.ru/i155/0908/f3/5ff3955c1adc.jpg

That is not me, sorry. I love Russia. But I am not racist or violent.

[Michael]

Agree with everything you say. Only, I am not nationalist, I am patriot.

They are Russian nationalists: http://s57.radikal.ru/i155/0908/f3/5ff3955c1adc.jpg

That is not me, sorry. I love Russia. But I am not racist or violent.
Sorry, I did not mean to infer that you were a violent nationalist extremist or anything like that.

Btw, we've had several discussions at this forum about the difference between "patriotism" and "nationalism" and I'm afraid the distinction doesn't really hold up very well at all. The two terms seem to blend into each other. What seems to matter most is "moderate" vs "extremist", not "patriot" vs "nationalist". I'll take a moderate nationalist over a patriot extremist any day.

[MeMyselfAndI]

Sorry, I did not mean to infer that you were a violent nationalist extremist or anything like that.

Btw, we've had several discussions at this forum about the difference between "patriotism" and "nationalism" and I'm afraid the distinction doesn't really hold up very well at all. The two terms seem to blend into each other. What seems to matter most is "moderate" vs "extremist", not "patriot" vs "nationalist". I'll take a moderate nationalist over a patriot extremist any day.

There are few 'moderate' nationalists here lol

Actually, there are several big groups, all different from each other.

NBP (National Bolshevik Party) http://2004.novayagazeta.ru/nomer/2004/89n/n89n-s11.jpg
They combine the principles of Communism and fascism (Stalinists, pretty much). Rights for workers, but only Russian workers. That kind of thing. They have broken apart into two groups not long ago, after their former leader Eduard Limonov (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eduard_Limonov) was denounced as a puppet of the West (and they, most of them, hate the West as much as they do Russian government). So, Limonov and some of his hard core followers left and established their own National Bolshevik Party; and the rest formed the new National Bolshevik Front, which is much more violent and hard line than the original movement. Both are banned and pursued by police. Combined, I'd say they have maybe 500,000 memebers country-wide. Biggest group. In Voronezh, and many other cities, there are entire schools where all boys are NBs.

RNE (Russian National Unity)
http://www.rnerossia.narod.ru/logo.jpg
The guys I showed before. More of a militia than a party. Their self-proclaimed duty is to defend Slavic, Orthodox Christian people in Russia. Founded and headed by Alexander Barkashov (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Barkashov). They have martial arts schools, citizen street patrol volunteer squads, etc. Estimated at as many as 100,000 members. Interesting thing about them: they are not against non-Slavic, non-Christian minorities who are native to Russia, like Tatars, or Buryats. But, they act against those not from Russia, like Azerbaijanis or Uzbeks. Technically banned, but covertly enjoys support of police and FSB bosses. There is information that they receive training and weapons at OMON (paramilitary police) bases.

DPNI (Movement Againt Illegal Immigration)
http://img.lenta.ru/photo/2008/05/01/1may/39.jpg
About 5,000 members, the movement is new. Used to be funded by the Kremlin, at one point, but then, after an ideological split with Putin's "Nashi", that funding ceased and they were banned. They are against illegal migrants and migration, but some accuse them of racism toward all immigrants, legal or not.

There are also many other far right groups, skinheads, small, without a central leadership.
file:///C:/Users/owner/AppData/Local/Temp/moz-screenshot.jpghttp://www.kp.ru/upimg/5a3e8f353c90697f8fa8aa939d18ebfb3dd46ab0/67629.jpg
Overall, 75,000 skinheads in Russia.

There are also the Cossacks.
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash2/hs081.ash2/37392_443918241557_721246557_6321996_8225432_n.jpg
740,000 people in Russia claim Cossackhood. It is as much an ethnos as it is a political movement and a nation-wide militia. Frankly, it is something to proud of, they are a fierce, strong, proud people, warriors of the steppes. But, unfortunately, they live like they did 200 or 300 years ago. Racist against, particularly, Muslim and Turkic peoples; homophobic (every time gays try to have their parade in Moscow or Saint Petersburg, thousands of Cossacks come in, literally trains full of them, to beat the 'sodomites'). Cossack and RNE militias train together in Cossack stronghold Rostov.