Michael
Jun 14th 2010, 09:37 PM
I happened to be doing some research on WW2 industrial production levels and I stumbled across this chart on Wiki. Military Production During WWII (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_production_during_World_War_II)
From one of the data tables, I was able to extrapolate this data for the German economy during the war.
1939 - GDP grew 9.4%
1940 - GDP grew less than 1.0%
1941 - GDP grew 6.5%
1942 - GDP grew 1.1%
1943 - GDP grew 2.1%
1944 - GDP grew 2.6%
1945 - GDP contracted 29%
I found this quite interesting since it was very much typical data that corresponds to the industrial output data for Germany during WW2.
While this is pretty crude meta-level data, this does suggest that the German economy didn't really benefit much from slave labor or expropriated property. Certainly the Nazi war machine utilized some slave labor and did expropriate property, I just don't see how there could be very much of that without a small bump in GDP growth for years subsequent to successful conquests (particularly Poland which was conquered in 1939). Indeed, 1940 was the year of the largest increase in the German military manpower shift from civilian to military. This would (logically) be expected to produce a slight reduction in GDP growth for 1940.
I think it has already been established that German military production increased in every single month and every single year of the war right up until the end of 1944. That pattern is reflected in the GDP data.
I don't have any data links, but I do know that German GDP growth was robust throughout the 1936-37 period prior to the data table (likely in the 6-9% range each year if I remember correctly).
Btw, from the same data tables, another very interesting fact is that one can see that the Japanese economy peaked in 1942 and was in a depression for the rest of the war (their economy was contracting by 1% to 2% per year in 1943 and 1944). That also corresponds closely with the known data about Japanese military production during the war (mostly falling rates).
From one of the data tables, I was able to extrapolate this data for the German economy during the war.
1939 - GDP grew 9.4%
1940 - GDP grew less than 1.0%
1941 - GDP grew 6.5%
1942 - GDP grew 1.1%
1943 - GDP grew 2.1%
1944 - GDP grew 2.6%
1945 - GDP contracted 29%
I found this quite interesting since it was very much typical data that corresponds to the industrial output data for Germany during WW2.
While this is pretty crude meta-level data, this does suggest that the German economy didn't really benefit much from slave labor or expropriated property. Certainly the Nazi war machine utilized some slave labor and did expropriate property, I just don't see how there could be very much of that without a small bump in GDP growth for years subsequent to successful conquests (particularly Poland which was conquered in 1939). Indeed, 1940 was the year of the largest increase in the German military manpower shift from civilian to military. This would (logically) be expected to produce a slight reduction in GDP growth for 1940.
I think it has already been established that German military production increased in every single month and every single year of the war right up until the end of 1944. That pattern is reflected in the GDP data.
I don't have any data links, but I do know that German GDP growth was robust throughout the 1936-37 period prior to the data table (likely in the 6-9% range each year if I remember correctly).
Btw, from the same data tables, another very interesting fact is that one can see that the Japanese economy peaked in 1942 and was in a depression for the rest of the war (their economy was contracting by 1% to 2% per year in 1943 and 1944). That also corresponds closely with the known data about Japanese military production during the war (mostly falling rates).