Gulf Oil Rig Disaster

[Lily]

The oil spill is larger that first thought. Louisiana is going to get hit and the effects will be pretty devastating. Right now, the oil is being blown away from Florida, but all it takes is a wind shift and we'll have oil on our shores, too. Alabama and Mississippi coastlines are in danger. This is not a good picture.

Monday, the wind was blowing in from the west/southwest and I could smell the oil. It was strange. I didn't know what the odor was at first, but then, I realized what it was. The weather report is calling for winds again from the west/southwest starting next week.

[Michael]

I just heard on the radio news driving to work this morning that A) a new oil leak has occurred from the sunken rig increasing the size of this spill, and B) they have lit the spill on fire, hoping to burn it off before it hits any shorelines.

Indeed, I've often wondered why they don't normally light oil spills on fire. Seems like a 'decent' way to address the problem - its ugly, but less ugly than letting a spill hit the shorelines. Anyone know anything about the 'science' on that?

[andrewl]

I just heard on the radio news driving to work this morning that A) a new oil leak has occurred from the sunken rig increasing the size of this spill, and B) they have lit the spill on fire, hoping to burn it off before it hits any shorelines.

Indeed, I've often wondered why they don't normally light oil spills on fire. Seems like a 'decent' way to address the problem - its ugly, but less ugly than letting a spill hit the shorelines. Anyone know anything about the 'science' on that?

Its only been done in calm waters on rivers. (there has been a test burn on the ocean under controlled conditions).

Apparently it turns it into something resembling tar sands. Which is easier to scoop up with nets and is less likely to coat sea life and can probably be re-used. (so the theory goes, this particular attempt is unprecedented).

The problem here is the turbulent ocean. Could be harder to control the burn, or even get it to burn in the first place. Apparently they will separate some of the oil, drag it to a remote location, light it and see what happens. If it looks good they will continue the process.

Andrew

[Americano]

Its only been done in calm waters on rivers. (there has been a test burn on the ocean under controlled conditions).

Apparently it turns it into something resembling tar sands. Which is easier to scoop up with nets and is less likely to coat sea life and can probably be re-used. (so the theory goes, this particular attempt is unprecedented).

The problem here is the turbulent ocean. Could be harder to control the burn, or even get it to burn in the first place. Apparently they will separate some of the oil, drag it to a remote location, light it and see what happens. If it looks good they will continue the process.

Andrew

Trial and error attempts to resolve a disaster of this magnitude are really a pathetic state of affairs. There's not even a drunken ship's captain to shoulder the blame for this one.

[Americano]

The spin is on, estimates of leakage are now being quoted in barrels, 5,000 barrels a day. I guess the powers that be think it sounds better than 210,000 gallons or 735 tons a day.

[Baron Von Esslingen]

The spin has been on ever since the platform caught fire and killed 11 people.

[Lily]

The government is careful to call BP the "responsible party" while BP is pedaling just as furiously to lay blame on the operators of the oil rig.

Louisiana is expecting to see the leading edge of the oil slick tonight in the form of tar balls.

[Donkey]

As a silver lining, hopefully this will kneecap initiatives to expand offshore environmental suicide.

[Michael]

I've seen some data suggesting that this spill could end up being either A) almost as large as the Exxon-Valdez spill, or B) two to four times larger.

That seems to be the low/high range consensus!

OMG! :eek:

[andrewl]

I've seen some data suggesting that this spill could end up being either A) almost as large as the Exxon-Valdez spill, or B) two to four times larger.

That seems to be the low/high range consensus!

OMG! :eek:

It will be worse even if it is technically smaller. The habitat that will be harmed is far more sensitive and already reeling from industrial impacts.

Andrew

[Donkey]

I've seen some data suggesting that this spill could end up being either A) almost as large as the Exxon-Valdez spill, or B) two to four times larger.

That seems to be the low/high range consensus!

OMG! :eek:
It occurred to me today that, while I am entirely familiar with the Exxon Valdez spill, it's impact on the environment is not something that people my age experienced. Like, we here "omg Exxon Valdez" and we think "massive ecological catastrophe," but without really knowing or understanding what it means.



I suspect we are about to.

[Lily]

The oil has reached the outer shore of Louisiana. I want to drive out to the beach tomorrow, make some photographs and maybe collect some sand. It may be the last time for a while that I see our shore so beautiful.


Government officials said the blown-out well 40 miles offshore is spewing five times as much oil into the water as originally estimated - about 5,000 barrels, or 200,000 gallons, a day.

At that rate, the spill could eclipse the worst oil spill in U.S. history - the 11 million gallons that leaked from the grounded tanker Exxon Valdez in Alaska's Prince William Sound in 1989 - in the three months it could take to drill a relief well and plug the gushing well 5,000 feet underwater on the sea floor.

Ultimately, the spill could grow much larger than the Valdez because Gulf of Mexico wells tap deposits that hold many times more oil than a single tanker.


Link (http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_LOUISIANA_OIL_RIG_EXPLOSION?SITE=FLPET&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2010-04-29-21-45-25)

[JHC]

Today they are reporting definitively that this is far larger than the Exxon/Valdez spill.

In addition, I heard on the radio coming home from my A&P final (95%), that a S.W.A.T. team has been issued to the sight. Not sure what that's about but there was some discussion that they were considering the possibility that this was a terrorist attack.

[Americano]

The government is careful to call BP the "responsible party" while BP is pedaling just as furiously to lay blame on the operators of the oil rig.

You can bet BP has any financial involvement nicely wrapped up into a limited liability structure.

Louisiana is expecting to see the leading edge of the oil slick tonight in the form of tar balls.

[JHC]

You can bet BP has any financial involvement nicely wrapped up into a limited liability structure.

Obama and his admin are trying to quickly get the word out that there will be no tax dollars spent on this mess. Of course, what they mean is that they'll pay for it, charge it back to BP, and never collect on the billions of dollars this is going to cost.

Cynic.

[Michael]

Spin, spin, spin!

Privatize profits and socialize the losses. That's the business model big capital uses and these days.

It would be interesting to see how much Exxon (actually) paid for the Exxon Valdez spill - and how much they didn't pay.

[Lily]

Today they are reporting definitively that this is far larger than the Exxon/Valdez spill.

In addition, I heard on the radio coming home from my A&P final (95%), that a S.W.A.T. team has been issued to the sight. Not sure what that's about but there was some discussion that they were considering the possibility that this was a terrorist attack.


SWAT is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Here's the website. Link (http://www.discussionworldforum.com/forum/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=27001) Some of the weather geeks at Weather Underground were talking about this yesterday. These folks are based in Texas and are affiliated with the USDA. They study everything from land management to effects of pollutants on complex water systems.

[Baron Von Esslingen]

There goes Spring Break for a generation or two.

[Americano]

There goes Spring Break for a generation or two.

People now go into the water on spring break? Why would they waste precious drinking, drugs and fornication time with frivolous activities?

[Michael]

There goes Spring Break for a generation or two.

Isn't Daytona Beach on the Atlantic coast of Florida? :ummm:

I always thought that was 'ground zero' for the Spring Break set?

[JHC]

SWAT is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Here's the website. Link (http://www.discussionworldforum.com/forum/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=27001) Some of the weather geeks at Weather Underground were talking about this yesterday. These folks are based in Texas and are affiliated with the USDA. They study everything from land management to effects of pollutants on complex water systems.

That's funny. I wonder if the folks on the radio program knew that and I missed part of their story or if they didn't know and just started the terrorism theory.:lol:

[JHC]

Spin, spin, spin!

Privatize profits and socialize the losses. That's the business model big capital uses and these days.

It would be interesting to see how much Exxon (actually) paid for the Exxon Valdez spill - and how much they didn't pay.

I thought the same thing. If you allowed a company to cause that much damage and then tried to make them pay, they'd simply stop. Defunct. Then you pay anyway.

That's why I'm with Obama 100% on the issue of corporations playing in politics. A corporation doesn't have a genuine concern, only it's operators.

[JHC]

Isn't Daytona Beach on the Atlantic coast of Florida? :ummm:

I always thought that was 'ground zero' for the Spring Break set?

Spring Break is a big deal where we are. It started to take over from Daytona about a decade ago. It didn't seem like it was that big this year though.

[Lily]

That's funny. I wonder if the folks on the radio program knew that and I missed part of their story or if they didn't know and just started the terrorism theory.:lol:


I don't know, but good ol' Rush got it wrong, too. So, you know... he's the epitome of "truth."

[JHC]

I don't know, but good ol' Rush got it wrong, too. So, you know... he's the epitome of "truth."

He did? Oh please tell me he made a big deal about it.
I just figured that it must not make sense to me because I didn't have all the information.
Clearly, that is the case. :lol:

[Lily]

He did? Oh please tell me he made a big deal about it.
I just figured that it must not make sense to me because I didn't have all the information.
Clearly, that is the case. :lol:


Of course he did. He (jokingly?) said that Pres. Obama believes that the some of the Tea Party folks must have had a hand in blowing up the oil rig and that's why he was sending in the SWAT team.

He's so cute, isn't he? :rofl:

[Michael]

Of course he did. He (jokingly?) said that Pres. Obama believes that the some of the Tea Party folks must have had a hand in blowing up the oil rig and that's why he was sending in the SWAT team.

He's so cute, isn't he? :rofl:

Nothing cute or innocent about Rush Limbaugh trying to use the disaster to score a partisan point and spread propaganda lies.

Wingnuts get their ideas from somewhere - and fact is, it is people like Rush who feed them the lies that get them so mad to try to do something about it.

[Michael]

I don't know, but good ol' Rush got it wrong, too. So, you know... he's the epitome of "truth."

Rush always gets it wrong. He's not interested in any 'facts' - he just wants to attack Obama/liberals over and over regardless of any facts.

[Lily]

Nothing cute or innocent about Rush Limbaugh trying to use the disaster to score a partisan point and spread propaganda lies.

Wingnuts get their ideas from somewhere - and fact is, it is people like Rush who feed them the lies that get them so mad to try to do something about it.

Rush always gets it wrong. He's not interested in any 'facts' - he just wants to attack Obama/liberals over and over regardless of any facts.

Oh, I don't even believe he cares who he attacks. His ultimate aim is money. If he keeps his listeners riled up, they come back for more. Ka-ching! He's the absolute worst kind of media monster.

[Michael]

Oh, I don't even believe he cares who he attacks. His ultimate aim is money. If he keeps his listeners riled up, they come back for more. Ka-ching! He's the absolute worst kind of media monster.

He has to know exactly who he is attacking and precisely how to attack them to get the maximum response that he seeks. That implies a dedication rather than casual critique.

I admit that Rush, like Beck, is probably just in it for the money, acting out a 'public role' for maximum personal profit. I don't see these guys as 'evil' (only their producers and sponsors are engaging in that). However, the 'buttons' they are pushing are very dangerous ones - the high profile that the media gives them is the problem. Whackos out there sometimes take what they hear to very seriously and literally.

Respectable media should be treating these fellows like the piece of shits they are, rather than celebrating them. That's the only point I'd make. They are all collectively feeding the beast.

[Americano]

He has to know exactly who he is attacking and precisely how to attack them to get the maximum response that he seeks. That implies a dedication rather than casual critique.

I admit that Rush, like Beck, is probably just in it for the money, acting out a 'public role' for maximum personal profit. I don't see these guys as 'evil' (only their producers and sponsors are engaging in that). However, the 'buttons' they are pushing are very dangerous ones - the high profile that the media gives them is the problem. Whackos out there sometimes take what they hear to very seriously and literally.

Respectable media should be treating these fellows like the piece of shits they are, rather than celebrating them. That's the only point I'd make. They are all collectively feeding the beast.

It's no different than religion. Some people support whomever and whatever their peer groups determine is worthy of their faith, no evidence required. Rush and Beck are no different than the televangelist requesting $20 from followers, just a different collection method.

[Michael]

According to Wikipedia, Exxon paid all of $287 million in damages for the Exxon Valdez spill.

They were assessed $5 billion in punitive damages, but Exxon has appealed this all the way up to the Supreme Court (several times) and has yet to pay a penny of 18 years later.

$287 million doesn't sound like much...

[Americano]

BP has publicly stated it will pay for all legitimate clean-up expenses. Legitimate as defined by a court of law with legions of BP lawyers fighting tooth and nail against every claim is how I define that gesture.

[Americano]

According to Wikipedia, Exxon paid all of $287 million in damages for the Exxon Valdez spill.

They were assessed $5 billion in punitive damages, but Exxon has appealed this all the way up to the Supreme Court (several times) and has yet to pay a penny of 18 years later.

$287 million doesn't sound like much...

$26.09 for each gallon of the 11 million gallons spilled sounds like a real bargain.

[Michael]

http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/safeawards2.gif

Bad choice of dates I guess! :rofl:

[Americano]

http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/safeawards2.gif

Bad choice of dates I guess! :rofl:

Gotta send that one to my friend in the oil business. He's been bombarding me with absolute crap about how the current disaster is statistically insignificant when compared to world wide ocean oil drilling and production.

No one in the oil business has any sense of guilt. This will, like the Exxon Valdez incident, become just another cost of doing business with the public picking up much of the tab.

[Michael]

There were probably going to give BP a "lifetime achievement" award for off-shore oil rig safety something silly like that! :lol:

[Americano]

There were probably going to give BP a "lifetime achievement" award for off-shore oil rig safety something silly like that! :lol:

I included that in the email to my oil buddy. I can almost see his bright red face with steam pouring from his ears.

[Michael]

Well, its looking like $75 million is the max that BP will have to pay. :eek:

Up to $1 billion of the $1.6 billion reserve could be used to compensate for losses from the accident, as much as half of it for what is sometimes a major category of costs: damage to natural resources like fisheries and other wildlife habitats.

Under the law that established the reserve, called the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund, the operators of the offshore rig face no more than $75 million in liability for the damages that might be claimed by individuals, companies or the government, although they are responsible for the cost of containing and cleaning up the spill.

The fund was set up by Congress in 1986 but not financed until after the Exxon Valdez ran aground in Alaska in 1989. In exchange for the limits on liability, the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 imposed a tax on oil companies, currently 8 cents for every barrel they produce in this country or import.

Source (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/02/us/02liability.html)

The purpose of this law seems to be to put a cap on damages from lawsuits arising from oil spills and to make sure that those who loose their incomes can't sue for it. Charming.

[Lily]

This spill is going to be horrible for Florida, too. It's just a matter of time before strong loop currents and eddies pick up the oil and funnel it into the Gulf Stream, say oceanographers. When that happens, the oil will effect the entire west coast of Florida. No more shrimp, oysters, grouper, sport fishing, sponges, estuaries, beaches... no more anything.

Then if the Gulf Stream carries oil around to the east coast of the state and into the Atlantic, everybody's in trouble. With hurricane season starting up next month, who knows what will happen.

http://www.ocean-pro.com/gulfstream/gsscofa.gif

[andrewl]

Well, its looking like $75 million is the max that BP will have to pay. :eek:



Source (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/02/us/02liability.html)

The purpose of this law seems to be to put a cap on damages from lawsuits arising from oil spills and to make sure that those who loose their incomes can't sue for it. Charming.

It also addresses the fact that over time the oil industry will be responsible for almost immeasurable (in monetary terms) damages. In other words, the industry itself could not exist if they were actually responsible for all the costs of all the disasters all over the world every time.

The law itself pretty much guarantees the destruction of the earths biosphere while the ultimate costs and suffering are passed on to the consumer.

Meanwhile BP profited over 6 billion for the 1st quarter, and with summer still to come, its very likely they will increase that profit in the 2nd quarter.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aN5Ah2PAtMaY

Andrew

[Greendruid]

If you were a kid and had a really big bag of candy and noticed that you could sell the candy to all the other kids while keeping enough for yourself and all your friends, wouldn't you want to occasionally spill some candy into a puddle and then say "Oh look! Now there's even fewer candies for everyone to eat! I'll have to charge each of you double now!"

Never underestimate the selfishness of humanity. You can quote me on that.

[Evangeline]

If you were a kid and had a really big bag of candy and noticed that you could sell the candy to all the other kids while keeping enough for yourself and all your friends, wouldn't you want to occasionally spill some candy into a puddle and then say "Oh look! Now there's even fewer candies for everyone to eat! I'll have to charge each of you double now!"

Never underestimate the selfishness of humanity. You can quote me on that.

I wouldn't have thought of it.

[Michael]

If you were a kid and had a really big bag of candy and noticed that you could sell the candy to all the other kids while keeping enough for yourself and all your friends, wouldn't you want to occasionally spill some candy into a puddle and then say "Oh look! Now there's even fewer candies for everyone to eat! I'll have to charge each of you double now!"

Never underestimate the selfishness of humanity. You can quote me on that.
Why would you have to go through the charade of destroying merchandise? That seems silly and counter productive (not profit maximizing).

I'll agree that one shouldn't underestimate the selfishness of humanity, but one shouldn't bank on it either.

[Americano]

If you were a kid and had a really big bag of candy and noticed that you could sell the candy to all the other kids while keeping enough for yourself and all your friends, wouldn't you want to occasionally spill some candy into a puddle and then say "Oh look! Now there's even fewer candies for everyone to eat! I'll have to charge each of you double now!"

Never underestimate the selfishness of humanity. You can quote me on that.

I'm probably as critical of humanity's motives as anyone around, but 5,000 barrels/day out of 72-million barrels/day world production doesn't set off any alarms. From a business and public relations perspective I'd think if BP had its druthers, it would prefer this event never happened.

[Americano]

It also addresses the fact that over time the oil industry will be responsible for almost immeasurable (in monetary terms) damages. In other words, the industry itself could not exist if they were actually responsible for all the costs of all the disasters all over the world every time.

The law itself pretty much guarantees the destruction of the earths biosphere while the ultimate costs and suffering are passed on to the consumer.

Nigeria (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jun/30/oil-royaldutchshell) is a prime example of that philosophy.

Meanwhile BP profited over 6 billion for the 1st quarter, and with summer still to come, its very likely they will increase that profit in the 2nd quarter.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aN5Ah2PAtMaY

Andrew

[andrewl]

There is an effort to raise the cap on BPs liabilities to 10 billion. Half a years profit or less. And the total tally of damages is likely to be far higher.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36933743/ns/us_news-environment/

[WFCY]

It also addresses the fact that over time the oil industry will be responsible for almost immeasurable (in monetary terms) damages. In other words, the industry itself could not exist if they were actually responsible for all the costs of all the disasters all over the world every time.

The law itself pretty much guarantees the destruction of the earths biosphere while the ultimate costs and suffering are passed on to the consumer.

Meanwhile BP profited over 6 billion for the 1st quarter, and with summer still to come, its very likely they will increase that profit in the 2nd quarter.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aN5Ah2PAtMaY

Andrew

It's truely tragic that the immeasurable damage inflicted on the environment is classically considered an "economic externality" in what's taught in neoclassical schools of ecnomics- lightly discarded as marginal and incidental. While the same university departments also preach the doctrine which strakly opposes market interventions such as government regulation of businesses and holding them liable for such "externalities" due to negelect and profiteering.

Ironically, this happened at about the same time Obama approved of the Cape Code wind mill construction. You have completely harmless, renewable sources of energy being supported by the state- and opponents raising their fists and scream "big government". The same people who thought the oil spill was not a big deal- just another "externality" in the great inevitable historical advancement called "capitalism".

[Americano]

There is an effort to raise the cap on BPs liabilities to 10 billion. Half a years profit or less. And the total tally of damages is likely to be far higher.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36933743/ns/us_news-environment/

Making it retroactive will be an extremely difficult political challenge. Big oil lobbyists throw unbelievable amounts of money around like chicken feed.

Early blog estimates of $30 billion based on only one year of affected industries losses for punitive damages seem accurate and they still don't have it capped. The trust fund only contains $1.6 billion.

Again, Exxon still has all punitive damage claims ($5 billion) from the Exxon Valdez spill tied up in court 20 years later.

America, bend over and grab your ankles. Again.

[JHC]

It's truely tragic that the immeasurable damage inflicted on the environment is classically considered an "economic externality" in what's taught in neoclassical schools of ecnomics- lightly discarded as marginal and incidental. While the same university departments also preach the doctrine which strakly opposes market interventions such as government regulation of businesses and holding them liable for such "externalities" due to negelect and profiteering.

Ironically, this happened at about the same time Obama approved of the Cape Code wind mill construction. You have completely harmless, renewable sources of energy being supported by the state- and opponents raising their fists and scream "big government". The same people who thought the oil spill was not a big deal- just another "externality" in the great inevitable historical advancement called "capitalism".
I had a dream about my cat being run over by some punk who came up with an excuse that he was late for something. He argued that my stupid cat's life should not be weighed against his. "It isn't! It's being weighed against your urgency to get nowhere fast".
In case you missed it, it makes a decent analogy. We, as a crumbling capitalist economy, literally trade human life and the very environment on which we depend, for a very small and relatively insignificant benefit taken mostly by the elite few. Why? because that's what we've been told is right and just.
Since when did it become righteous to grease the wheels of profit for a bunch of thugs that already have more than any man could spend in three lifetimes?
Insurance companies, banks, financial advisors, oil, and politicians.
Grrrrrr! :tape:

By the way, good to see you.

[Donkey]

I had a dream about my cat being run over by some punk who came up with an excuse that he was late for something. He argued that my stupid cat's life should not be weighed against his. "It isn't! It's being weighed against your urgency to get nowhere fast".
In case you missed it, it makes a decent analogy. We, as a crumbling capitalist economy, literally trade human life and the very environment on which we depend, for a very small and relatively insignificant benefit taken mostly by the elite few. Why? because that's what we've been told is right and just.
Since when did it become righteous to grease the wheels of profit for a bunch of thugs that already have more than any man could spend in three lifetimes?
Insurance companies, banks, financial advisors, oil, and politicians.
Grrrrrr! :tape:

By the way, good to see you.
Moral of the story, we should fuel our energy consumption by burning cats. :)

[JHC]

Moral of the story, we should fuel our energy consumption by burning cats. :)

Nooooooooooo!!!! Not Jimmehhhhhh!!!! He is black and occasionally smells like the back end of a bus though. It might work.

[Greendruid]

I rather think that the loftier theoretical points that we're pinpointing here have never crossed the minds of the corporate entities that make these decisions/blunders/environmental catastrophes/whatever. I think it is much simpler than that. Greed for money and the things that money buys in their immediate lifetimes, and maybe enough to send their sniveling brats to university MBA programmes is their driving force. That's it - this is their life vision and it is fuelled by greed for material possessions and a life of ease. Whatever blows up, dies, starves or burns in their wake has nothing to do with them because they do not think systemically, they think about their own selfish needs. It is symptomatic of capitalism but the root causes are not considered by those who perpetuate it. In other words, the theoretical underpinnings are not articulated in the manners we're pointing out here. Capitalism breeds this kind of person and their selfishness reinforces capitalism without a need to understand the process themselves. It is internalised in their making.

[Americano]

I rather think that the loftier theoretical points that we're pinpointing here have never crossed the minds of the corporate entities that make these decisions/blunders/environmental catastrophes/whatever. I think it is much simpler than that. Greed for money and the things that money buys in their immediate lifetimes, and maybe enough to send their sniveling brats to university MBA programmes is their driving force. That's it - this is their life vision and it is fuelled by greed for material possessions and a life of ease. Whatever blows up, dies, starves or burns in their wake has nothing to do with them because they do not think systemically, they think about their own selfish needs. It is symptomatic of capitalism but the root causes are not considered by those who perpetuate it. In other words, the theoretical underpinnings are not articulated in the manners we're pointing out here. Capitalism breeds this kind of person and their selfishness reinforces capitalism without a need to understand the process themselves. It is internalised in their making.

They do think systematically and while your description of their motivation is spot on I think you're ignoring how they do cover their asses with forward planning. The long standing 8¢ per barrel special tax on crude oil limiting operator liability to clean up and $75 million for any single disaster is a prime example of how complacent idealism actually is, until faced with the reality of such occurrences.

[JHC]

They do think systematically and while your description of their motivation is spot on I think you're ignoring how they do cover their asses with forward planning. The long standing 8¢ per barrel special tax on crude oil limiting operator liability to clean up and $75 million for any single disaster is a prime example of how complacent idealism actually is, until faced with the reality of such occurrences.

I think the both of you are spot on.

Greendruid, that is precisely what I meant to be saying. It is only their personal well being that drives our current capitalist economy. There is no incentive to collaborate with society once a business gains a particular leverage. At that point, it's "all for me".

[JHC]

Also, I don't mean to say this is necessarily wrong or bad, just that it is reality and if we wish to make a change, we probably ought to stop pretending that it isn't. God how I hate that.

[Americano]

Also, I don't mean to say this is necessarily wrong or bad, just that it is reality and if we wish to make a change, we probably ought to stop pretending that it isn't. God how I hate that.

Reality for the majority is a full rice bowl. Only when that's disturbed do they start looking at why. And they're always a day late and a dollar short.

[Michael]

Gulf oil spill setback: Dome doesn't work as planned

BILOXI, Miss. — Efforts to cap a leaking oil well in the Gulf of Mexico suffered a major setback Saturday, after ice-like crystals clogged the inside of a massive dome meant to contain an 18-day-long spill.

The crystals forced officials to move the steel-and-concrete dome, which is still on the sea bed, some 650 feet away from the well — and to scramble to find ways to stop the water-and-gas crystals from forming.

"I wouldn't say it failed yet," said Doug Suttles, chief operating officer of BP, the London-based company that owns the leaking well. "What I would say is what we attempted to do last night didn't work."

He kept expectations low, however. "It's very difficult to predict whether we will find solutions," he said.

The dome was considered the best short-term solution to stop much of the spill. Engineers had hoped to contain 85 percent of the estimated 210,000 gallons gushing daily from the well by funneling oil to the surface from the dome, which is really a 78-ton box with a pyramid on the top. The 40-foot box took about two weeks to build.

Source (http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/05/08/93778/gulf-oil-spill-setback-first-effort.html)

This isn't looking good.

[Michael]

Surprise, surprise...

Rig Owner Had Rising Tally of Accidents

The sinking of the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig, which triggered the spill spewing oil into the Gulf of Mexico, caught the energy world by surprise. The operator, Transocean Ltd., is a giant in the brave new world of drilling for oil in deep waters far offshore. It had been honored by regulators for its safety record. The very day of the blast on the rig, executives were aboard celebrating its seven straight years free of serious accidents.

But a Wall Street Journal examination of Transocean's record paints a more equivocal picture.

Nearly three of every four incidents that triggered federal investigations into safety and other problems on deepwater drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico since 2008 have been on rigs operated by Transocean, according to an analysis of federal data. Transocean defended its safety record but didn't dispute the Journal's analysis.

In addition, an industry survey of oil companies that hired Transocean perceived a drop in its quality and performance, including safety by some measures, compared with its peers, though it still scored tops in one safety category.

Already the largest deep-water driller, Transocean in November 2007 took over rival GlobalSantaFe in an $18 billion deal. A Journal analysis of records maintained by the U.S. Minerals Management Service found that Transocean's share of incidents in deep water investigated by the regulator has gone up since the merger, even after accounting for its increased size.

From 2005 through 2007, a Transocean rig was involved in 13 of the 39 deep-water drilling incidents investigated by the MMS in the Gulf of Mexico, or 33%. That's roughly in line with the percentage of deep-water rigs, 30%, Transocean owned and operated in the Gulf then, according to data firm RigLogix.

Since the merger, Transocean has accounted for 24 of the 33 incidents investigated by the MMS, or 73%, despite during that time owning fewer than half the Gulf of Mexico rigs operating in more than 3,000 feet of water.

Some of Transocean's clients have cited the merger as a reason they believe the company's performance has dropped.

Source (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704307804575234471807539054.html)

Why am I not surprised by this?

[Evangeline]

Every day, every hour, every minute, more oil gushes into the gulf.

Watch this guy's fly-over video.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=524_1273510578

It's fucking horrible.

[Americano]

Most sources have ceased trying to estimate how large the outflow actually is, with numbers far beyond the 'official' 210,000 gallons a day being bantered around.

[andrewl]

Most sources have ceased trying to estimate how large the outflow actually is, with numbers far beyond the 'official' 210,000 gallons a day being bantered around.


It seems the video BP released of the leak and some other information that has come to light very recently pretty much confirms that the real estimate of the spill is about 70K barrels a day. That would mean 2.9 million gallons per day. It also turns out that BP has not actually measured the flow of the oil at all, they (and the gov) have rather used an estimate they know damn well is low balling it.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/291975
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/14/us/14oil.html?hp

"Yet for decades, specialists have used a technique that is almost tailor-made for the problem. With undersea gear that resembles the ultrasound machines in medical offices, they measure the flow rate from hot-water vents on the ocean floor. Scientists said that such equipment could be tuned to allow for accurate measurement of oil and gas flowing from the well.

Richard Camilli and Andy Bowen, of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, who have routinely made such measurements, spoke extensively to BP last week, Mr. Bowen said. They were poised to fly to the gulf to conduct volume measurements. But they were contacted late in the week and told not to come, at around the time BP decided to lower a large metal container to try to capture the leak. That maneuver failed. They have not been invited again. "


Andrew

[Lily]

Andrew, from your Digital Journal article:


Some scientists suspect that a lot, if not most, of the oil is lurking below the surface rather than on it, in a gigantic underwater plume the size and trajectory of which remain largely a mystery.

According to scientists interviewed by the Huffington Post most major oil spills occur right at the surface but this one is entirely different.

With a spill this deep, the oil starts off extremely dense and under pressure. Some of it breaks up or dissolves into the water on the way up, and some of it makes it all the way to the surface. But some will stabilize in the water column maybe as low as 200 to 300 metres off the seabed, then it starts drifting with the current, reports the Huffington Post.


What I'm reading from some of my weather geek people is that as much as 90% of this spill is in the water column. Think of it as the Titanic iceberg. What experts don't know is what will happen when a hurricane gets into the GOM and starts churning up that water column and sucking up the oil and methane gas that might be released to the surface.

[Americano]

Here's more:

"NPR reported late Thursday that scientific analysis of a video of the leak, released Wednesday by BP, put the rate closer to 70,000 barrels a day, making the resulting spill already far worse than the 1989 Exxon Valdez incident in Alaska."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bp-oil-leak-worse-than-previously-thought-2010-05-14?dist=beforebell

[Michael]

I've seen some data suggesting that this spill could end up being either A) almost as large as the Exxon-Valdez spill, or B) two to four times larger.

That seems to be the low/high range consensus!

OMG! :eek:

I guess we're moving into the "B" option here... a spill 2 to 4 times as large as the Exxon Valdez. :eek:

[Americano]

I guess we're moving into the "B" option here... a spill 2 to 4 times as large as the Exxon Valdez. :eek:

Unless one of BP's makeshift contraptions happens to work, a slant well drilled to relieve the flow is considered the only real solution and that takes a minimum of 90-days to complete. 2 to 4 times as large as the Exxon Valdez could still be a low estimate.

[Lily]

The oil is being sucked into the GOM Loop Current. NOAA has closed off 19% of the Gulf to fishing. With west winds off the Gulf, I can smell the oil when I walk outside.

More from the LATimes (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/2010/05/gulf-oil-spill-meteorologist-says-oil-enters-loop-current.html) and CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/19/gulf.oil.spill.main/index.html?hpt=T1)

[Michael]

Unless one of BP's makeshift contraptions happens to work, a slant well drilled to relieve the flow is considered the only real solution and that takes a minimum of 90-days to complete. 2 to 4 times as large as the Exxon Valdez could still be a low estimate.

Yes, it does appear that Valdez will lose its 'crown' here. :sad:

Indeed, it would have been nice if the Valdez spill remained the worst on record. That's not a record one likes to see broken.

The oil is being sucked into the GOM Loop Current. NOAA has closed off 19% of the Gulf to fishing. With west winds off the Gulf, I can smell the oil when I walk outside.

More from the LATimes (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/2010/05/gulf-oil-spill-meteorologist-says-oil-enters-loop-current.html) and CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/19/gulf.oil.spill.main/index.html?hpt=T1)

That's really, really bad news. That you can smell it scares me. I fear that like the Icelantic 'ash-cloud' and the Exxon Vadez spill, the fallout/damage from this this is going to be with us for many years to come.

[Americano]

Yes, it does appear that Valdez will lose its 'crown' here. :sad:

Indeed, it would have been nice if the Valdez spill remained the worst on record. That's not a record one likes to see broken.



That's really, really bad news. That you can smell it scares me. I fear that like the Icelantic 'ash-cloud' and the Exxon Vadez spill, the fallout/damage from this this is going to be with us for many years to come.

Certain members of the legal profession have to be licking their chops at the billing windfall.

[Americano]

The oil is being sucked into the GOM Loop Current. NOAA has closed off 19% of the Gulf to fishing. With west winds off the Gulf, I can smell the oil when I walk outside.

More from the LATimes (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/2010/05/gulf-oil-spill-meteorologist-says-oil-enters-loop-current.html) and CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/19/gulf.oil.spill.main/index.html?hpt=T1)

BP has, using typical US general public apathy and spending a fraction of a quarterly profit, accomplished admirable (from a corporate viewpoint) public relations damage control. With the exception of US states directly affected by the environmental disaster it's no longer a front page or talking head lead story.

Every estimation of escaped crude oil other than the official BP/US Coast Guard 5000 barrels per day declaration has been shunted to the unproven speculation gallery. Other than an initial political reaction I've heard nothing of retroactive legislation holding BP responsible for economic damage beyond the $75 million deductible being pursued. Government bean counters are searching for liquidity to fund the $1.6 billion trust to cover BP's fuckup.

Good luck America.

[Americano]

http://inlinethumb58.webshots.com/43833/2020046570083629245S600x600Q85.jpg (http://good-times.webshots.com/photo/2020046570083629245KUxWfT)

[Lily]

I'm really concerned. The experts don't know what a hurricane will do as it crosses this oil in the Gulf. Some think the oil will slow down a storm, others think the oil will make it worse; however, they all agree that a storm surge will bring gallons of oil onto the land. Then, we're really fucked.

There has to be some group of people, some technology, some method out there in the world that could do a better job than BP is doing to stop this gusher. Is anyone looking? The Obama administration? BP? Someone?

[dilettante]

Yes, it does appear that Valdez will lose its 'crown' here. :sad:

Indeed, it would have been nice if the Valdez spill remained the worst on record. That's not a record one likes to see broken.


Apparently "worst" is an ambiguous term when it comes to oil spills. The Valdez doesn't even rank within the top 10 in terms of actual oil split. It's not even close, actually. It's burned such a nasty place in public memory because of where it took place: (1) in American waters, (2) near important animal habitats, and (3) in very cold northern waters where evaporation and oil-eating microbes made only a negligible impact. It seems we aren't very good at coping with these things or at predicting the long-term effects, but location is tremendously important.

For example, until the Deepwater Horizon disaster, hardly anyone remembered the Ixtoc I oil spill (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ixtoc_I) (and most people still don't). In '79 Ixtoc I dumped 10 - 30 thousand barrels per day into the Gulf of Mexico for 10 months before it was capped. The total split was 3,000,000+ barrels (or about 12 times the Exxon Valdez spill). It was very, very bad, but it wasn't the end of the world; the warm water in the Gulf did a much better job of dealing with the oil than the cooler waters the Valdez was in. Its extremely unlikely that the Deepwater Horizon spill will be even remotely as bad in terms of barrels of oil dumped into the Gulf, though its closer proximity to US shores will be problematic. The overall lesson, though, is that we don't really know what the long-term effects will be.

[Michael]

LATimes reporting that they've stopped the leak.

'Top kill' stops gulf oil leak for now, official says

Officials are cautionary but say drilling fluid has blocked oil and gas temporarily. Engineers plan to begin pumping in cement and then will seal the well.

Source (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-oil-spill-top-kill-20100528,0,5782115.story)

Lets hope this stays blocked!

[Michael]

LATimes reporting that they've stopped the leak.



Source (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-oil-spill-top-kill-20100528,0,5782115.story)

Lets hope this stays blocked!

Looks like this report was premature. I'm reading this morning that the 'top kill' effort has been temporarily suspended.

[Michael]

Looks like this report was premature. I'm reading this morning that the 'top kill' effort has been temporarily suspended.

Up and down like a yoyo - now I'm hearing that the 'top kill' effort failed. :shrug:

Anyone else seeing contradictory news on this topic?

[Americano]

Looks like it was just another band aid on the chest wound:

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/kill+failure+sparks+more+anger+frustration/3090973/story.html

Three more months before a relief well can be completed:

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0530/BP-oil-spill-top-kill-failure-means-well-may-gush-until-August

I was surprised to read Canada requires a relief well be drilled simultaneously with an original well in the Beaufort Sea. This restriction has been in place for 30-years, with Canadian and other oil companies legislating to have it removed. US oil interests would never have allowed anything that sensible to be implemented.

http://whenhistoryattacks.wordpress.com/2010/05/27/require-relief-wells-from-the-start/

[Lily]

The oil is spreading along the north Gulf Coast, hitting Alabama and Mississippi. Authorities have reported an oil slick approximately seven miles off Pensacola Beach with southeast winds pushing it toward shore.

[Michael]

I was surprised to read Canada requires a relief well be drilled simultaneously with an original well in the Beaufort Sea. This restriction has been in place for 30-years, with Canadian and other oil companies legislating to have it removed. US oil interests would never have allowed anything that sensible to be implemented.

http://whenhistoryattacks.wordpress.com/2010/05/27/require-relief-wells-from-the-start/

I'm pleased to hear about this! Good to know that we do some things right up here! :)

The oil is spreading along the north Gulf Coast, hitting Alabama and Mississippi. Authorities have reported an oil slick approximately seven miles off Pensacola Beach with southeast winds pushing it toward shore.
I'm NOT pleased to hear about this! :sad:

[Zarquon]

I'm pleased to hear about this! Good to know that we do some things right up here! :)

Tar sands, anyone?;)

[Michael]

Tar sands, anyone?;)
I said some things, not all things.

[Michael]

In case anyone is curious... here's a representation of the size of the oil spill in the Gulf...

http://strangemaps.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/gulf-original.jpg?w=405&h=255

[Americano]

In case anyone is curious... here's a representation of the size of the oil spill in the Gulf...

http://strangemaps.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/gulf-original.jpg?w=405&h=255

And it is hurricane season.

Amazing how BP is supposedly capturing 11,000 barrels per day from what was formerly a BP and US Coast Guard official 5000 BPD gulf leak.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0719567020100607

[Greendruid]

It seems that Homo aquaticus finally has something useful to say (http://www.wwl.com/Kevin-Costner-s-anti-oil-machines-to-be-deployed/7441867). This seems so bloody simple. Why is this the first time someone has invented one of these. What gets me is that the patent has existed since 1990!!! The real questions become:
a) Will these actually be used to clean up the oil spill? and
b) Who is benefitting from this spill in the scenario where this seemingly very useful technology gets ignored?

[Michael]

It seems that Homo aquaticus finally has something useful to say (http://www.wwl.com/Kevin-Costner-s-anti-oil-machines-to-be-deployed/7441867). This seems so bloody simple. Why is this the first time someone has invented one of these. What gets me is that the patent has existed since 1990!!! The real questions become:
a) Will these actually be used to clean up the oil spill? and
b) Who is benefitting from this spill in the scenario where this seemingly very useful technology gets ignored?

In answer to "A" it seems they are going to try them now in the Gulf.

In answer to "B", I'm sure it would be the same cast of characters who were involved in the spill in the first place - companies like Haliburton, BP and their many thousands of sub-contractors - all cutting corners on safety and then protecting their turf for dealing with the mess.

[Donkey]

Here is what the oil spill would look like if it were on land. Courtesy of the ODP.

http://www.ohiodems.org/blog/spill%20over%20ohio.png


Half our state would have a delightful slick coating.

[Greendruid]

Here is what the oil spill would look like if it were on land. Courtesy of the ODP.

http://www.ohiodems.org/blog/spill%20over%20ohio.png


Half our state would have a delightful slick coating.

That's one way to take care of Ohio :rofl:

[Michael]

Looks like BP is going to be toast.

The amount of evidence of BP's negligence in the Deepwater Horizon well episode is stacking up.

If it can be proven in a court of law that BP was negligent, then BP is on the hook for every penny of cleanup and compensation for everything. That will likely bankrupt the company as the costs climb into the billions. I could easily see this one hitting $10 to $15 billion after all is said and done.

And that's without the reputation hit that BP is going to take when it becomes public knowledge that their negilgence caused the accident.

[Americano]

Looks like BP is going to be toast.

The amount of evidence of BP's negligence in the Deepwater Horizon well episode is stacking up.

If it can be proven in a court of law that BP was negligent, then BP is on the hook for every penny of cleanup and compensation for everything. That will likely bankrupt the company as the costs climb into the billions. I could easily see this one hitting $10 to $15 billion after all is said and done.

And that's without the reputation hit that BP is going to take when it becomes public knowledge that their negilgence caused the accident.

$10-15 billion costs would be viable for BP. BP profits in 2009 were $13.96 billion, down from $25.59 billion in 2008 due to lower oil prices. Unfortunately for BP I've read economic damage in affected states from the spill alone for one year could easily exceed $30 billion.

BP has already lost 50% of market value. That means existing credit agreements are toast (no actual affect until 1-1-11) and any going forward revolving credit lines for operations and bond issues are up in the air.

Unless current US administration is able to convince congress to enact legislation that increases BP's liability cap (which excludes only clean-up costs) from $75 million on a retroactive basis, armies of lawyers will string it out until most of the affected parties are dead. Again, after 20 years, Exxon Valdez liability is still tied up in the legal system.

[Michael]

$10-15 billion costs would be viable for BP. BP profits in 2009 were $13.96 billion, down from $25.59 billion in 2008 due to lower oil prices. Unfortunately for BP I've read economic damage in affected states from the spill alone for one year could easily exceed $30 billion.

BP has already lost 50% of market value. That means existing credit agreements are toast (no actual affect until 1-1-11) and any going forward revolving credit lines for operations and bond issues are up in the air.

Unless current US administration is able to convince congress to enact legislation that increases BP's liability cap (which excludes only clean-up costs) from $75 million on a retroactive basis, armies of lawyers will string it out until most of the affected parties are dead. Again, after 20 years, Exxon Valdez liability is still tied up in the legal system.
BP's liability cap of $75 million goes out the window if BP is proven to be negilgent. And that's precisely where the evidence is pointing.

In other words, if BP is proven to be negligent, BP's liability becomes unlimited automatically under present law.

[Americano]

"President Obama just returned from his fourth trip to the Gulf Coast region since the BP Oil Spill began in April. Tonight at 8 p.m. EDT, he will address the nation from the Oval Office on the oil spill and his Administration's plan to address this crisis going forward.

The clean up and recovery process will not happen overnight, but the Obama Administration will not rest until we've stopped the leak, contained and cleaned up the oil and restored the lives of those who live in the region. We will continue to hold BP accountable for the ongoing economic impact of this disaster. The President has demanded that BP and all responsible parties pay legitimate claims of economic damages to residents and businesses affected by the oil spill quickly and fairly."

White House Email

Bet that gets a big audience share in affected states.

[Michael]

If anyone is curious, www.TheOilDrum.com is probably one of the best sources of information about the oil spill.

And if anyone is interested, here's a link that makes for some scary reading:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593#comment-648967

It does look like more information about the spill is being hidden than revealed. This spill is already the worst in US history - it is well on its way to becoming the worst in planetary history. :erm:

[Greendruid]

If anyone is curious, www.TheOilDrum.com (http://www.TheOilDrum.com) is probably one of the best sources of information about the oil spill.

And if anyone is interested, here's a link that makes for some scary reading:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593#comment-648967

It does look like more information about the spill is being hidden than revealed. This spill is already the worst in US history - it is well on its way to becoming the worst in planetary history. :erm:

Wow! This looks really bad. Total collapse sounds like a dire situation but I have to wonder what would happen in a normally operating well that had been drained. It still isn't clear to me why this is different other than that the seepage of oil is at a much faster rate. In other words, why does the author believe this will collapse as opposed to a normally drained well?

[Lily]

If anyone is curious, www.TheOilDrum.com (http://www.TheOilDrum.com) is probably one of the best sources of information about the oil spill.

And if anyone is interested, here's a link that makes for some scary reading:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593#comment-648967

It does look like more information about the spill is being hidden than revealed. This spill is already the worst in US history - it is well on its way to becoming the worst in planetary history. :erm:


Holy shit. That is scary. I'm not even sure I comprehend the implications of this well falling apart.

On another note, I was watching some information about spill response plans on CNN. Turns out four or five oil companies all have nearly idenitical plans -- oh, and they all included information on saving the walruses, animals that haven't been in the GOM for about 3 million years. Sheesh.

[Michael]

Holy shit. That is scary. I'm not even sure I comprehend the implications of this well falling apart.
Near as I can tell from reading the article (which is rather technical) is that the whole physical structure of the well-bore under the seabed appears to be breaking down. As this occurs, the oil reserve that they were tapping becomes able to escape in all different directions (no control). This will seep out through the seabed in various places until the whole reserve drains out all by itself.

If this occurs, it appears that there is nothing anyone can do about it but watch with horror as billions of barrels of oil seep out over the years.

Keep in mind, this is happening a mile or so under the seabed which is a mile underwater.

We need some geological experts to explain what effect that is going to have...

On another note, I was watching some information about spill response plans on CNN. Turns out four or five oil companies all have nearly idenitical plans -- oh, and they all included information on saving the walruses, animals that haven't been in the GOM for about 3 million years. Sheesh.
It would appear that some consultant wrote up a 'spill response plan' based on the Exxon Valdez disaster. That report has apparently been copy-pasted by all the oil companies for every regulatory requirement of demonstrating that they are prepared for accidents.

Just shows how unseriously these oil companies take their responsibilities.

[Americano]

That article is a great read. Sobering, but most interesting. I followed links and man is BP attempting to pull the wool over the eyes of the US public. Along with the US military, but we're all accustomed to their self-serving fabrications.

[Zarquon]

BP Agrees to Place About $20 Billion in Escrow for Spill Claims

The White House and top executives of the energy giant BP
have tentatively agreed that the oil company will pay about
$20 billion over several years into an independently
controlled fund to pay compensation to people and businesses
harmed by the immense oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The
fund would be overseen by Kenneth Feinberg, the prominent
lawyer who ran the compensation fund for victims of the Sept.
11 terror attacks and is the government's special master for
executive pay under the TARP program. President Obama
demanded the creation of such a fund in his national address
about the oil spill Tuesday evening, and met with company
executives at the White House on Wednesday.Source (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/17/us/politics/17obama.html)
Notice "tentative" and "over the years".
Not being a lawyer, an ethicist, a PR man, or any other "ist", I have to ask, is this adequate?

[Americano]

Source (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/17/us/politics/17obama.html)
Notice "tentative" and "over the years".
Not being a lawyer, an ethicist, a PR man, or any other "ist", I have to ask, is this adequate?

According to another source $40 billion is more realistic. Here's (http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0616/Gulf-oil-spill-why-the-US-wants-a-healthy-BP) a decent analysis of why current administration doesn't want to push BP too hard.

[Lily]

Near as I can tell from reading the article (which is rather technical) is that the whole physical structure of the well-bore under the seabed appears to be breaking down. As this occurs, the oil reserve that they were tapping becomes able to escape in all different directions (no control). This will seep out through the seabed in various places until the whole reserve drains out all by itself.

If this occurs, it appears that there is nothing anyone can do about it but watch with horror as billions of barrels of oil seep out over the years.

Keep in mind, this is happening a mile or so under the seabed which is a mile underwater.

We need some geological experts to explain what effect that is going to have...


It would appear that some consultant wrote up a 'spill response plan' based on the Exxon Valdez disaster. That report has apparently been copy-pasted by all the oil companies for every regulatory requirement of demonstrating that they are prepared for accidents.

Just shows how unseriously these oil companies take their responsibilities.

So, they did not have a handle on safely drilling the well, nor did they have any clue from the outset on how to clean up any resulting spill. Terrific.

[Americano]

So, they did not have a handle on safely drilling the well, nor did they have any clue from the outset on how to clean up any resulting spill. Terrific.

They do have a handle on safely drilling deep water wells, but the US (unlike other countries) doesn't require a relief well be drilled in conjunction with the producing well nor does it require safety containment standards adopted by other countries.

In addition to those failings, more and more evidence of BP field management cutting costs at the expense of safety is coming to light as Halliburton and others attempt to dodge the liability bullet. In addition, let's not forget the corrupt (http://www.examiner.com/x-45555-Natural-Resources-Policy-Examiner%7Ey2010m5d29-BLM-director-Abbey-to-lead-scandalplagued-Minerals-Management-Service) US Federal Mineral Services Management (which regulates offshore oil and gas drilling) has long been owned by big oil.

[Michael]

Source (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/17/us/politics/17obama.html)
Notice "tentative" and "over the years".
Not being a lawyer, an ethicist, a PR man, or any other "ist", I have to ask, is this adequate?

I think it is meant to address one of the key problems they have with Exxon and the Exxon Valdez spill. There Exxon was required to pay billions in damages, but Exxon has spent millions in lawyers playing delay games (twenty years and still going strong).

Fact is, Exxon still hasn't paid out and Exxon uses that money to make more money (over 20 years, they've made more profits from that money than they would have had to pay out).

The plan here is obviously meant to remove that particular incentive from BP. By forcing $20 billion into an escrow account, BP doesn't get to use that $20 billion for the next ten years while they fight against it in court.

But don't be fooled. It still wouldn't surprise me one bit if BP is able to wiggle out of paying the money and stiffing the taxpayer. US courts are overwhelmingly biased in favor of big money corporations and that isn't likely to change anytime soon. And there is a very strong corporate and political tradition in the USA that profits are always privatized and losses are socialized whenever possible (and they call this 'capitalism'!!!!).

[Americano]

I'd love to see the what if scenarios in BP's financial forecasting department. Talk about burning the midnight oil.

[Americano]

I think it is meant to address one of the key problems they have with Exxon and the Exxon Valdez spill. There Exxon was required to pay billions in damages, but Exxon has spent millions in lawyers playing delay games (twenty years and still going strong).

Fact is, Exxon still hasn't paid out and Exxon uses that money to make more money (over 20 years, they've made more profits from that money than they would have had to pay out).

The plan here is obviously meant to remove that particular incentive from BP. By forcing $20 billion into an escrow account, BP doesn't get to use that $20 billion for the next ten years while they fight against it in court.

But don't be fooled. It still wouldn't surprise me one bit if BP is able to wiggle out of paying the money and stiffing the taxpayer. US courts are overwhelmingly biased in favor of big money corporations and that isn't likely to change anytime soon. And there is a very strong corporate and political tradition in the USA that profits are always privatized and losses are socialized whenever possible (and they call this 'capitalism'!!!!).

I'd venture a guess that BP will negotiate to a consortium bond guarantee for any escrow account requirement and service actual claims from income and operating credit lines.

Some oil stocks are looking very attractive due to the BP PR fallout. That'll change if and when BP suspends any dividend payments.

[Lily]

If anyone is curious, www.TheOilDrum.com (http://www.TheOilDrum.com) is probably one of the best sources of information about the oil spill.

And if anyone is interested, here's a link that makes for some scary reading:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593#comment-648967

It does look like more information about the spill is being hidden than revealed. This spill is already the worst in US history - it is well on its way to becoming the worst in planetary history. :erm:


Hey, Michael, one of the Purdue scientists who is now monitoring the flow of oil for the government was on Wolf Blitzer's show a while ago and basically confirmed at least some of this post. Wolf said there was some speculation that the well casing integrity was compromised and the guy confirmed it, stating that the top kill was halted because the mud shots weren't coming back up as expected. He also said that it was now impossible to put a valve on the top of the well because the pressure would cause the well casing to fail. When Wolf asked him if the casing could collapse anyway, the guy hesitated and then said, (not all that convincingly), that he didn't think that was going to happen.

[Michael]

Hey, Michael, one of the Purdue scientists who is now monitoring the flow of oil for the government was on Wolf Blitzer's show a while ago and basically confirmed at least some of this post. Wolf said there was some speculation that the well casing integrity was compromised and the guy confirmed it, stating that the top kill was halted because the mud shots weren't coming back up as expected. He also said that it was now impossible to put a valve on the top of the well because the pressure would cause the well casing to fail. When Wolf asked him if the casing could collapse anyway, the guy hesitated and then said, (not all that convincingly), that he didn't think that was going to happen.

Yes, the situation appears to be very grave and no one wants to say that publicly.

It would appear that several people are aware of this "worst case" scenario, just that no one wants to talk about because apparently there is no solution for it.

If I understand the article correctly, if the well casing is collapsing, the two relief wells they are frantically drilling are not likely to work (August completion).

[Michael]

Here is a timeline of how the estimates have increased in recent weeks:

* On April 23rd the first official estimate of 200 barrels per day was announced.

* On April 24th a revised estimate of 1,000 barrels per day was announced.

* On April 28th a revised estimate of 5,000 barrels per day was announced.

* On May 27th a revised estimate of 12,000-19,000 barrels per day was announced.

* On June 10th a revised estimate of 20,000-40,000 barrels per day was announced.

* On June 15th a revised estimate of 35,000-60,000 barrels per day was announced.

Source (http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/55007)

Gosh, are we going to hit the 100,000 mark by next week? :eek:

Here's a NYTimes article (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/16/us/16spill.html?hp) on the same topic.

[Michael]

This thread needs some levity... :lol:

http://images2.dailykos.com/images/user/426/PT_AO839_W3Feat_DV_20100603173355.jpg

[Evangeline]

Here's some levity for ya. How about that congressman from Texas, saying he was ashamed of the White House getting the 20 B for the people of the Gulf Coast who are losing everything because of the oil ruining their lives.

What a joke this guy is. He's the biggest recipient of oil money in the House by the way.

Of course.



"It is a tragedy of the first proportion that a private corporation can be subjected to what I would characterize as a shakedown, in this case, a $20 billion shakedown,” said Barton, who called the money set aside “a slush fund.”


http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-17/bp-s-spill-fund-a-20-billion-shakedown-barton-says-update5-.html

The balls on these guys, I'm amazed.

[Michael]

Here's some levity for ya. How about that congressman from Texas, saying he was ashamed of the White House getting the 20 B for the people of the Gulf Coast who are losing everything because of the oil ruining their lives.

What a joke this guy is. He's the biggest recipient of oil money in the House by the way.

Of course.




http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-17/bp-s-spill-fund-a-20-billion-shakedown-barton-says-update5-.html

The balls on these guys, I'm amazed.
Yes, Limbaugh and Bachmann have both jumped on this bandwagon, but the Republican leadership has forced Joe Barton to walk back his comments.

That line of attack is pure electoral suicide for the Republicans and even Boenher can see that. Joe Barton has since had to apologize for his 'apology'.

[Michael]

In case anyone is curious, quick math indicates that about 0.7% of the world's total oil production is spewing into the Gulf of Mexico right now (on a daily basis).

(that's based on 60,000 barrels per day leakage vs 86 million barrels per day production)

[Greendruid]

I think the original estimate of the total reserve in the well was 2.5 billion bbls. If we maintain a rate of 60,000 bbls/day for the leakage and nothing can fix that or lower that, we're looking at an approximately 115 year long leak!!! These numbers aren't making sense to me in conjunction with the claim that the entire structure is weakening. I admit that BP was negligent in the way they drilled the single bore in the first place. I can't see why they would have also screwed up the well structure integrity though.

[Lily]

In case anyone is curious, quick math indicates that about 0.7% of the world's total oil production is spewing into the Gulf of Mexico right now (on a daily basis).

(that's based on 60,000 barrels per day leakage vs 86 million barrels per day production)

I think the original estimate of the total reserve in the well was 2.5 billion bbls. If we maintain a rate of 60,000 bbls/day for the leakage and nothing can fix that or lower that, we're looking at an approximately 115 year long leak!!! These numbers aren't making sense to me in conjunction with the claim that the entire structure is weakening. I admit that BP was negligent in the way they drilled the single bore in the first place. I can't see why they would have also screwed up the well structure integrity though.

A member of the government's team of scientists monitoring the flow rate was on... damn, some news channel yesterday... anyway, he said that number of 60,000 barrels was not a static number. The number is derived from looking at hi-res photos and intermittent data from censors. An hour later, that figure could fluctuate up or down depending on the pressure inside the well.

[Greendruid]

Okay, I made a major error in that estimate number. The Macondo Prospect that the Deepwater Horizon drilled into in the Mississippi Canyon had an estimated 50 million bbls. That puts us at about 28 months of seepage given the current rate. That sounds more likely but equally ugly. When will we learn?

[Evangeline]

I don't think we'll learn Green. I think greed is more powerful than common sense.

[Michael]

I don't think we'll learn Green. I think greed is more powerful than common sense.

I think we can and are learning 'green'. It just is a very difficult lesson to learn and all of our whole socio-eco-political-cultural systems are built on vested interests against it.

[Michael]

Just to keep perspective here....

BODO, Nigeria — Big oil spills are no longer news in this vast, tropical land. The Niger Delta, where the wealth underground is out of all proportion with the poverty on the surface, has endured the equivalent of the Exxon Valdez spill every year for 50 years by some estimates. The oil pours out nearly every week, and some swamps are long since lifeless.

Source (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/17/world/africa/17nigeria.html?hp)

That's a hair-raising article about oil pollution in Nigeria. :eek:

[Michael]

Looks like we are now getting independent confirmation that the 'worst-case' scenario outlined in the Oildrum article linked above is indeed what is happening.

http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/06/oil_spill_containment_efforts.html

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/7067996.html

[Greendruid]

This (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2214743220100623) is just ... I have no words for it. I feel like I'm in a bad global disaster movie and I can't stop it. This is the daemon-child of the body corporate and its powers to challenge the government as an individual.

I figured out my numbers foible BTW. I had the estimate in gallons at first (2-2.5 billion) - divide by 42 gallons per bbl and you get the 50 mil. estimate.

[Lily]

This is a slow motion disaster, one created by us and amplied in nature. I'm just sick. This is the same feeling I had all those years ago finding out there was some virus out there killing us via the same act meant to reproduce more of us. The life blood... oil is the life blood of our economy.

I will be dead and gone before we end our dependence on petroleum products. Lower carbon footprint. Energy efficiency. Alternative energy. What can I do, now? What? That is the question that keeps rolling around in my brain.

[Michael]

This is a slow motion disaster, one created by us and amplied in nature. I'm just sick. This is the same feeling I had all those years ago finding out there was some virus out there killing us via the same act meant to reproduce more of us. The life blood... oil is the life blood of our economy.

I will be dead and gone before we end our dependence on petroleum products. Lower carbon footprint. Energy efficiency. Alternative energy. What can I do, now? What? That is the question that keeps rolling around in my brain.

Yes, I too share this feeling. What can we do when all of society is hellbent for self-destruction? Seems like anything I might to do decrease my carbon footprint would be little more than pissing against the wind (seems like a very 'male-centric' analogy there - sorry!).

It would appear that society is planning on continuing our highly destructive 'status quo' right up until the last drop of oil is gone. :shrug:

[The Drunk Guy]

Yes, I too share this feeling. What can we do when all of society is hellbent for self-destruction? Seems like anything I might to do decrease my carbon footprint would be little more than pissing against the wind (seems like a very 'male-centric' analogy there - sorry!).

It would appear that society is planning on continuing our highly destructive 'status quo' right up until the last drop of oil is gone. :shrug:
Until we find an alternate source that's more profitable, that is.

And girl's can piss in the wind, too. If only we could harness that energy. :ummm:

[Michael]

Until we find an alternate source that's more profitable, that is.
Society will NEVER find an alternative source of energy that is more profitable than oil. That's how we got hooked on oil in the first place - it is very cheap and profitable (and an extremely efficient/powerful energy source).

Ergo, if your supposition is correct, then we will indeed drive off the cliff with the last drop of oil.

And girl's can piss in the wind, too. If only we could harness that energy. :ummm:
:ummm: I'm just not going to touch this one.

[Lily]

This is a speech given by a young woman, Kindra Arsenan, a resident of Louisiana and a fisherman's wife. She spent some time with BP's people. This is her story. It's pretty distrubing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3bzypjTIWg&feature=player_embedded

[Lily]

The latest in the developing war in the Gulf, journalists are now being legally barred getting within 65 feet of, well, pretty much anything the government doesn't want them reporting. This is just outrageous.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXsmLMV1CrM&feature=player_embedded

[Americano]

The latest in the developing war in the Gulf, journalists are now being legally barred getting within 65 feet of, well, pretty much anything the government doesn't want them reporting. This is just outrageous.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXsmLMV1CrM&feature=player_embedded

Undoubtedly such bans being rationalized as for their own good.

[Michael]

This is a speech given by a young woman, Kindra Arsenan, a resident of Louisiana and a fisherman's wife. She spent some time with BP's people. This is her story. It's pretty distrubing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3bzypjTIWg&feature=player_embedded

The latest in the developing war in the Gulf, journalists are now being legally barred getting within 65 feet of, well, pretty much anything the government doesn't want them reporting. This is just outrageous.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXsmLMV1CrM&feature=player_embedded

Very ugly. But not particularly surprising if you followed the Exxon Valdez nightmare - or Presidential politics under GW Bush. Both of which illustrated these types of tactics on a routine basis.

Our world is getting very ugly. These are just more evidence of the increasing trend towards fascism. In rightwing fascism, the corporate world becomes exempt from legal punishment and the government has the legal right to control the citizenry on a whim. That's where things are clearly heading. :eek:

[Michael]

Apparently the latest attempt to "cap" the well has been 100% successful.

Unfortunately, oil pressure levels are much lower than what they should be. That means that there is a leak in the well casing itself and oil is escaping underground.

This is the 'worst-case' scenario that many have feared all along. If this is indeed true, it is possible that the 'relief wells' may be a failure as well.

As it stands, there is a good possibility that this well is going to be leaking out oil for the rest of eternity and there's not a damn thing anyone can do about it.