What to do about Pakistan?

[Michael]

What to do about Pakistan?

Article: The Economist (http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11893663)

Right now, the democratic government of Pakistan under Sharif is moving to possibly re-instate the fired judges that triggered this round of political instablity in Islamabad. Sharif has also asked the Pakistani parliament to impeach President Musharraf.

The Northwest Frontier region (aka 'Tribal Areas') that is made up of semi-autonomous provinces and are the home and heartland of the Taliban movement, is further beyond the control of Islamabad than ever before. Virtually the entire Taliban issue in Afghanistan is dependent upon support from the Taliban homeland in Pakistan. When the Taliban thrive in Pakistan, Afghanistan becomes an easy pawn they can play with.

And there are virtually no politicians of any stature with any kind of reputation for ability or trust, anywhere nearby. When the wildy corrupt Benazir Bhutto was hailed as the savoir of democracy in Pakistan, that should tell you about the quality of political leadership in Pakistan. Indeed, I'm reminded of the quip against France in the Hundred Years War with England - that when your best general is a peasant woman, you are in deep trouble. ;)

So what to do about Pakistan? It is a nuclear armed nation, it is arguably one of the most politically unstable places on the globe and they are armed to the teeth and their political system is entirely corrupt.

Heck, even Iraq looks like a realistic problem to address compared with the danger Pakistan represents to Western security interests (and I'm not just talking about US geostrategic interests here).

Honestly, I don't have a clue about what kind of approach for the West to take towards Pakistan right now. I just can't see any good options here. The [b]Economist[/b article cited above doesn't really offer any clever solutions either - just more evidence of doom and gloom in Islamabad.

Anyone have any ideas about how the West ought to deal with Pakistan?

[Michael]

Right now Pakistan is negotiating with the IMF for a bank-bailout package. This does not bode well at all since the IMF has a really bad habit of demading policies that lead to political instability as the price of their loans.

South America bears a great many scars from IMF advice. I'm nervous about what misery and dangers lie in Pakistan given that they are wildly unstable to begin with. Throwing gasoline on the fire of Pakistani instability seems like madness.

And the USA continues to push the envelope here, tossing missile strikes into Pakistani territory...

Does anyone think that Pakistan can recover from this mess or do they think that Pakistan is going to get worse before it gets better?

[Michael]

A suspected US missile strike has killed 20 people, including a top Taleban commander, in north-west Pakistan, witnesses and officials say.

Source: BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7692373.stm)

Does anyone think that the US lobbing missiles into Pakistan is going to benefit anyone?

Like, what's to be gained here? And at what cost? To my understanding, any potential 'gain' in killing some Taliban is totally offset by the political price that the Pakistanis are going to exact for this clear violation of Pakistani sovereignty.

Indeed, under 'normal' rules and the UN Charter, the US is guilty of some serious violations that amount a premeditated act of "US aggression" against Pakistan.

[Michael]

Just in case anyone is curious, the political situation in Pakistan continues to progressively get worse.

Islamic law to be imposed in parts of Pakistan
U.S., others aren't upbeat about deal meant to pacify Taliban in Swat Valley

PESHAWAR, Pakistan - Pakistan has agreed to suspend military offensives and impose Islamic law in part of the restive northwest, making a gesture it hopes will help calm the Taliban insurgency while rejecting Washington's call for tougher measures against militants.
Source (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29207954/)

And that's exactly what I've expected. US policy demands one thing - Pakistan is doing the opposite. Can't say I blame them - US policy advice has rarely been beneficial to anyone except US billionaires.

The fact is Pakistan is the world's most dangerously unstable regime right now and probably the greatest single danger to world peace. And the US seems to be pushing them in this direction. Weird.

Better US foreign policy please. I'm getting real tired of this Obama-Bush foreign policy game. The way things are going, I'd expect Pakistan to replace Israel-Palestine as the political issue most likely to cause the world to blow up in the face of western countries.

Of course, the Israel-Palestine issue retains this potential. Pakistan is just trumping it.

[Americano]

US military aggression has been trumped in the news by global economic woes. A few weeks ago I read (can't find the source) where Obama's meeting with Gates, General Petraeus and the Pentagon chief of staff regarding US withdrawal from Iraq did not go well. No details were made public but it was said Petraeus left the meeting visibly upset. Here's from a blog:

"Petraeus was visibly unhappy when he left the Oval Office, according to one of the sources. A White House staffer present at the meeting was quoted by the source as saying, "Petraeus made the mistake of thinking he was still dealing with George Bush instead of with Barack Obama.""

To me it looks like Obama is going to concentrate on US domestic problems and for now let the military remain in limbo. The MIC is its own force and sooner or later Obama will have to confront it.

[Michael]

Small glimmer of hope in the ongoing Pakistan vs Taliban war going on.

Attacked, Pakistani Villagers Take On Taliban

PESHAWAR, Pakistan — Villagers are rising up against the Taliban in a remote corner of northern Pakistan, a grass-roots rebellion that underscores the shift in the public mood against the militants and a growing confidence to confront them.

More than a thousand villagers from the district of Dir have been fighting Taliban militants since Friday, when a Taliban suicide bomber detonated his payload during prayer time at a mosque, killing at least 30 villagers.

Enraged by the bombing, men from surrounding villages began looking for Taliban militants and their supporters, burning houses and killing at least 11 men they identified as Taliban fighters, according to accounts from seven local residents, including one who took part in the fighting.

The uprising is not the first time that Pakistanis have formed their own militias to stand up to the Taliban, and previous efforts have often collapsed largely because the government and military did not come to their aid.

But the latest attempt is significant, revealing the determination of the people of Dir to keep out both the Taliban and the military and to prevent their area from turning into another war zone, like the nearby Swat Valley, where millions have fled fighting.

Source-NYTimes (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/10/world/asia/10pstan.html?_r=2)

This is huge news and shows the way that this war needs to progress. Pakistani helicopter gunships and American drone missiles are beyond useless here - they are part of the problem.

The issue is endemic to the Northwest Frontier (one only has to refer back to old British colonial views about the area to see that nothing much has changed here in the last century or so).

So it is remarkable to see elements native to the area get involved in the Taliban issue. Seems like the Taliban have a similar role of 'interloper' in both Pakistan and Afghanistan and only appear to be 'native' when contrasted with
true outsiders like the Pakistani army or western military elements.

Either way, the only solution to the problem is a local regional solution, not a western military solution, so this news is good news. Lets just hope it continues and the Pakistani government doesn't screw it up (again).

[Dominick]

It is often overlooked that the majority of victims, by a very large margin, of the Muslim fundamentalists are... Muslims. The latter do of course react against the former with the means they have. But it's obviously not in the interest of Western news agencies to report on that but sporadically.